--- title: "Japan" description: "Japan’s government read at source: the papers and ministries Bilby reads, predictions on Japan and on Japanese firms abroad with what happened to those judged, a map of who decides in Tokyo, and the analyst for Japan." url: "https://bilby.ai/japan/en" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/japan/en.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Japan’s government, read at source. Bilby collects what Japan’s ministries and press publish, in Japanese, and turns it into answers you can act on: who decides, what changed and what could happen next. [Request a briefing](https://bilby.ai/contact?about=briefing) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up) - **650K** documents collected from Japan, 13 Nov 2026 - **36** predictions on Japan; 3 judged, all true, 14 Nov 2026 - **1,000+** more than 1,000 people and bodies in Japan on the map of who decides, 28 Oct 2026 ### Prediction #190 · 27 Oct 2026 · Unresolved [Japan’s government preferential debt for local banks will greatly aid its data centre boom.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/190/japan-s-government-preferential-debt-for-local-banks-will-greatly-aid-its-data-c) METI proposes lending megabanks and regional banks long-term, low-rate state money through Japan Finance Corporation, the state covering part of any defaults, from fiscal 2027. Gains: SoftBank, NTT DATA. Gain less: Microsoft, Oracle, AWS **Who decides?** - Takaichi government: Sets the 17-sector growth strategy and directs METI - The Diet: Must amend the law, and can stop it - METI: Proposes the scheme and designs it - Ministry of Finance: Holds the fiscal loans and the indemnity budget, and can stop them - Japan Finance Corporation: Lends the banks long-term, low-rate state money - Prefectures and cities: Allocate land and GX zones to both groups - Megabanks and regional banks: Lend to SoftBank, NTT DATA and KDDI; whether they lend to foreign subsidiaries is unclear - ANRE and TEPCO PG: Connect the sites to the grid, and can hold up the timing - SoftBank, NTT DATA, KDDI: SoftBank and NTT DATA carry the largest debt needs, so gain the most - Foreign hyperscalers’ subsidiaries: Fund their own sites, so gain less - Takaichi government → METI: directs - The Diet → METI: can veto - METI → Japan Finance Corporation: designs - Ministry of Finance → Japan Finance Corporation: can veto - Japan Finance Corporation → Megabanks and regional banks: long-term, low-rate funds - Megabanks and regional banks → SoftBank, NTT DATA, KDDI: loans - ANRE and TEPCO PG → SoftBank, NTT DATA, KDDI, Foreign hyperscalers’ subsidiaries: can veto timing - Prefectures and cities → SoftBank, NTT DATA, KDDI, Foreign hyperscalers’ subsidiaries: allocate sites ## Who Bilby reads in Japan The sources of the 187 Japan documents in the Asia Daily Take, 31 July to 12 November 2026: the national press, and the ministries themselves. Beyond them, 650K documents collected from Japan (13 Nov). ### The press - 読売新聞 (Yomiuri Shimbun): 58 - 東京新聞 (Tokyo Shimbun): 40 - NHK: 17 - 毎日新聞 (Mainichi Shimbun): 17 - 日経 (Nikkei, Nikkei Business Healthcare): 8 - 産経新聞 (Sankei Shimbun and trade press): 5 ### Government - 経済産業省 (METI): 11 - 首相官邸 (Prime Minister’s Office): 10 - 外務省 (Ministry of Foreign Affairs): 9 - 金融庁 (Financial Services Agency): 4 - 厚生労働省 (Health, Labour and Welfare): 3 - 財務省・総務省・国土交通省・北海道 (Finance, Internal Affairs, Land and Transport, Hokkaido): 4 ## What Japan’s investors watch Five themes, each with a prediction from the public record, down to who gains and who loses. ### Energy security [The US share of Japan's crude imports will average below 25% across January to March 2027, down from 36% in July, even after Tokyo's planned oil security bills become law.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/137/the-us-share-of-japan-s-crude-imports-will-average-below-25-across-january-to-ma) · #137 · 30 Sep 2026 Gulf crude suits Japan’s refineries better than US shale. ### The yen and rates [The Bank of Japan's rate hike to 1.25% this month will be its last for at least four months, not the opening move of a rapid tightening cycle.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/93/the-bank-of-japan-s-rate-hike-to-1-25-this-month-will-be-its-last-for-at-least-f) · #93 · 9 Sep 2026 A hike-then-hold pattern: a pause is likelier than another rise before January 2027. ### Chips and AI [Japanese electronic components manufacturer Ibiden’s estimated 70–80% share of the high-end AI server substrate market will fall below 70% by early 2028.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/181/japanese-electronic-components-manufacturer-ibiden-s-estimated-70-80-share-of-th) · #181 · 22 Oct 2026 Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Unimicron win Nvidia orders before Ibiden’s Ono plant ramps up. ### Critical minerals and China [Iluka Resources will sign a binding multi-year dysprosium and terbium supply agreement with a Japanese buyer within 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/148/iluka-resources-will-sign-a-binding-multi-year-dysprosium-and-terbium-supply-agr) · #148 · 6 Oct 2026 Japan diversifies after China halted dysprosium and terbium shipments. ### Cars and trade [Japan’s passenger EVs are turning Chinese.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/184/japan-s-passenger-evs-are-turning-chinese) · #184 · 23 Oct 2026 BYD gains as Toyota loses part of its subsidy advantage. ## Japan abroad Japanese firms also live under China’s, ASEAN’s and India’s governments. Bilby’s analysts read each country’s own sources in its own language, and every prediction cites its source. - Indonesia (Kemenko Perekonomian): [Indonesia will add at least one of Japan or South Korea to its list of designated countries eligible for the relaxed export proceeds rule within the next 6 to 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/72/indonesia-will-add-at-least-one-of-japan-or-south-korea-to-its-list-of-designate) · #72 · 31 Aug 2026 · True - Vietnam (Báo Chính phủ): [Japanese semiconductor firms will gain an expansion advantage in Vietnam over rival foreign manufacturers through 2028.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/116/japanese-semiconductor-firms-will-gain-an-expansion-advantage-in-vietnam-over-ri) · #116 · 22 Sep 2026 · Unresolved - China (MOFCOM): [Beijing's new anti-dumping duties on Japanese dichlorosilane, reaching 99.2%, will end up benefiting South Korean and European chip-material suppliers rather than Chinese producers.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/91/beijing-s-new-anti-dumping-duties-on-japanese-dichlorosilane-reaching-99-2-will-) · #91 · 8 Sep 2026 · Unresolved - India (The Hindu): [Expect India’s DRI to widen its customs probe to more South Korea and Japanese electronics brands within the next two to three quarters.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/125/expect-india-s-dri-to-widen-its-customs-probe-to-more-south-korea-and-japanese-e) · #125 · 25 Sep 2026 · Unresolved - Thailand (Prachachat Turakij): [Chinese automakers, not Japanese incumbents, will keep gaining Thai EV market share even after Bangkok's new tiered excise tax rewards local component sourcing.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/99/chinese-automakers-not-japanese-incumbents-will-keep-gaining-thai-ev-market-shar) · #99 · 11 Sep 2026 · Unresolved ### Documents collected, by market | Market | Documents | | ------------------ | --------- | | China (Searchable) | 21.8M | | South Korea | 7.7M | | Malaysia | 2.0M | | Indonesia | 1.3M | | The Gulf | 1.3M | | Vietnam | 1.0M | | India | 290K | | Thailand | 220K | Counted on 13 November 2026. China’s documents are searchable in Bilby; the other markets’ are collected. ## Who decides in Tokyo Type a name or an issue and see who decides, drawn as a diagram. The map holds more than 1,000 people and bodies in Japan, as of 28 October 2026. **1,000+** people and bodies in Japan on the map of who decides, as of 28 October 2026. Only entries with a known country are counted, so the true number is higher. - **Lawmakers, ministers and officials**: named in kanji as well as English - **Diet committees**: such as the House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs - **Cabinet headquarters**: such as the Cybersecurity Strategic Headquarters - **Agencies and commissions**: such as the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy and the National Public Safety Commission - **Prefectures**: such as Akita, Kyoto and Hiroshima - **Companies**: such as NTT DATA and Daiwa Securities Group ## An analyst who reads Kasumigaseki The Japan Political Financial Analyst reads through the Honebuto budget cycle, the Cabinet Legislation Bureau’s review, ministry silos, zoku lawmakers and Keidanren, and the pull between the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance. This is how it reads prediction #172. **Japan Political Financial Analyst**: Analyses Japanese political economy, Kantei coordination, Cabinet legislation, ministry silos, Zaikai and Keidanren influence, fiscal and monetary constraints, zoku politics, and economic-security policy. [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up) - **Signal**: Mainichi Shimbun, 19 October: to replace ¥4.3 trillion a year lost to the food tax cut, ministries propose ending only 3 of the 121 tax breaks under review. - **Who is protected**: Large manufacturers’ R&D credits stay protected by growth priorities; small firms’ 15% rate and wage-increase credit are under review. - **The clash**: The Bank of Japan against the Ministry of Finance and the Kantei: does normalisation threaten debt service? (from the analyst’s own method) - **Forecast**: [Japan’s 10-year government bond yield will continue to rise for the next 9 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/172/japan-s-10-year-government-bond-yield-will-continue-to-rise-for-the-next-9-month) · #172 · 20 Oct 2026 · Unresolved ## Predictions on the record What Bilby expects to happen next in Japan, and by when, each with its reasoning and its sources. Every one keeps the date it was made, and is marked when it resolves. [Open the Prediction Record](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=japan) **36 predictions on Japan** · Since 3 Aug 2026 · counted 14 Nov. 3 judged so far, all true. ### [USD/JPY will retest the 160 handle within four weeks unless the Bank of Japan commits to a September rate hike.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/11/usd-jpy-will-retest-the-160-handle-within-four-weeks-unless-the-bank-of-japan-co) · #11 · 4 Aug 2026 · True USD/JPY broke above 160 on 28 August, reaching about 160.2, the first time since the joint US and Japan intervention on 31 July. ### [At least one major offshore wind developer will withdraw from or downsize a Japanese project within six months, despite Tokyo's subsidy hike to ¥700,000/kW.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/39/at-least-one-major-offshore-wind-developer-will-withdraw-from-or-downsize-a-japa) · #39 · 14 Aug 2026 · True Reuters reported on 5 November that Tokyo Gas, Japan's biggest city gas supplier, has withdrawn from an offshore wind project at Kashima Bay in Ibaraki prefecture because of rising costs. ### [Indonesia will add at least one of Japan or South Korea to its list of designated countries eligible for the relaxed export proceeds rule within the next 6 to 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/72/indonesia-will-add-at-least-one-of-japan-or-south-korea-to-its-list-of-designate) · #72 · 31 Aug 2026 · True Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto announced on 6 November that South Korea, Japan and the European Union have been added to the countries whose shareholders qualify mining exporters for the relaxed export proceeds rule. [See all 36 in the log](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=japan) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## The Asia Daily Take Bilby’s free newsletter on the governments of eleven Asian markets, in English, every weekday. Japan’s documents and predictions are in it. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://mailchi.mp/bilby/adt) ## Questions about Bilby in Japan ### Which Japanese sources does Bilby read? The national press and the ministries themselves. Among the 187 Japan documents in the Asia Daily Take: the Yomiuri Shimbun, Tokyo Shimbun, NHK and Mainichi Shimbun, METI, the Prime Minister’s Office, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Financial Services Agency. Beyond them, 650K documents collected from Japan (13 November 2026). ### Can Bilby read China’s and Vietnam’s rules in their own languages? China’s documents are searchable in Bilby in the original, and it answers in Japanese when you ask in Japanese. Vietnam’s and the other markets’ are collected: our analysts read them in their own languages for the Asia Daily Take and the predictions. ### How are the predictions checked? Each is published with its date and kept on the Prediction Record, where it is marked when it resolves. Of the predictions on Japan, the 3 judged so far were all true (14 November 2026). ### What is on the map of who decides? More than 1,000 people and bodies in Japan, as of 28 October 2026: lawmakers, ministers and officials, Diet committees, Cabinet headquarters, agencies, prefectures and companies. Only entries with a known country are counted, so the true number is higher. ### Can I use Bilby in Japanese? Yes, screens and answers alike. ## Read Japan’s government in its own words. Request a briefing for your own questions, or try Bilby now. - [When will the Bank of Japan next raise rates?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=When%20will%20the%20Bank%20of%20Japan%20next%20raise%20rates%3F) - [What did Japan’s cabinet approve this week?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20did%20Japan%E2%80%99s%20cabinet%20approve%20this%20week%3F) - [What could Japan’s AI safety penalties mean for developers selling there?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20could%20Japan%E2%80%99s%20AI%20safety%20penalties%20mean%20for%20developers%20selling%20there%3F) - [Who decides Japan’s nuclear restarts?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20Japan%E2%80%99s%20nuclear%20restarts%3F) - [What do the winter energy subsidies mean for utilities?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20do%20the%20winter%20energy%20subsidies%20mean%20for%20utilities%3F) [Request a briefing](https://bilby.ai/contact?about=briefing) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)