--- title: "Predictions" description: "What Bilby expects to happen next, and by when: every prediction on the record, with the reasoning and sources behind it." url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Predictions, on the record. What Bilby expects to happen next, and by when. Each prediction is published the day it is made, with the reasoning and sources behind it, and keeps that date until it is judged. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up) | When | Predictions | | ------------ | ----------- | | Judged | 7 | | Past due | 0 | | Oct–Dec 2026 | 29 | | Jan–Mar 2027 | 30 | | Apr–Jun 2027 | 21 | | Jul–Sep 2027 | 24 | | Oct–Dec 2027 | 41 | | Jan–Mar 2028 | 3 | | Apr–Jun 2028 | 1 | | Jul–Sep 2028 | 1 | | Oct–Dec 2028 | 9 | | Later 2029+ | 2 | | No date | 39 | 29 fall due by 31 December. Next, on 19 November: [US Customs will subject at least one more Vietnamese export sector, likely solar cells, steel or furniture, for enhanced transshipment enforcement within 90 days, despite Hanoi's new crackdown pledges.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/55/us-customs-will-subject-at-least-one-more-vietnamese-export-sector-likely-solar-) 200 open · 161 with a deadline · 39 without Deadlines are read from each claim’s own words. ## Judged so far 7 predictions have been judged: 6 came true, 1 did not. Each outcome carries the evidence and the day it was judged. [All 6 true](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?outcome=yes) · [All 1 false](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?outcome=no) ### True: [India will avoid new US tariffs under the Graham Act when President Trump makes his decision on 18 October.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/167/india-will-avoid-new-us-tariffs-under-the-graham-act-when-president-trump-makes-) President Trump signed an executive order on 16 October, two days before the 18 October trigger date, waiving the tariffs and sanctions the Graham Act would have started to apply. The act set a 100% duty on the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas that made new purchases from 18 October, and India was one of those buyers. Made 15 Oct 2026 · Judged 13 Nov 2026 ### True: [Indonesia will add at least one of Japan or South Korea to its list of designated countries eligible for the relaxed export proceeds rule within the next 6 to 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/72/indonesia-will-add-at-least-one-of-japan-or-south-korea-to-its-list-of-designate) Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto announced on 6 November that South Korea, Japan and the European Union have been added to the countries whose shareholders qualify mining exporters for the relaxed export proceeds rule. The expansion was agreed at a coordination meeting on 3 November. Made 31 Aug 2026 · Judged 13 Nov 2026 ### True: [Malaysia's Budget 2027 will shelve the GST-SST merger floated in the pre-budget statement, leaving it "under study" past the October tabling.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/48/malaysia-s-budget-2027-will-shelve-the-gst-sst-merger-floated-in-the-pre-budget-) Budget 2027, tabled on 9 October, left SST in place and did not carry the GST and SST merger that Anwar floated in August. The Finance Ministry study ordered then had no deadline. Made 19 Aug 2026 · Judged 13 Nov 2026 ## The latest predictions New ones most weekdays, each with the analysis and the sources behind it. ### Samsung Electro-Mechanics would capture a larger share of US AI-chip substrate orders in 2027. Taiwan · 12 Nov 2026 · Unresolved On 11 November, Taiwan proposed adding advanced AI-chip substrate technology to its list of national core technologies, bringing the associated trade secrets under its National Security Act. Tougher penalties for unauthorised use overseas will make US chip designers think twice about qualifying a backup factory if its right to use Taiwanese manufacturing know-how could be challenged. Samsung can offer a separate source from its existing South Korean lines, which NVIDIA had already contracted to use in October. Ibiden’s Ono expansion starts ramping up in early 2028, giving Samsung a chance in 2027 to win new orders that might otherwise go to Taiwan’s Unimicron. Additional source: [National Science and Technology Council](https://www.nstc.gov.tw/folksonomy/detail/19618cc4-0cdc-4573-a776-430ec6ecc399?l=ch) First reported by [Central News Agency](https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202611110311.aspx) ![Samsung Electro-Mechanics and competing substrate suppliers, US chip designers, and the Taiwanese agencies involved in the proposed trade-secret protections.](https://cms.bilby.ai/api/media/file/adt-2026-11-12-samsung-substrates.png?prefix=cms-media) [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Samsung%20Electro-Mechanics%20would%20capture%20a%20larger%20share%20of%20US%20AI-chip%20substrate%20orders%20in%202027.) · [Read the full prediction](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/213/samsung-electro-mechanics-would-capture-a-larger-share-of-us-ai-chip-substrate-o) ### NVIDIA will win AI GPU orders for SoftBank’s Sarawak campus worth US$500 million. Malaysia, Japan · 10 Nov 2026 · Unresolved On 9 November, SoftBank Group, Grab and PETROS signed a joint development agreement for the Sarawak venture, with US$1 billion in proposed funding tied to development and customer milestones. The money is paid out in stages as customers sign, so the partners need chips that tenants already trust. [Read the analysis](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/212/nvidia-will-win-ai-gpu-orders-for-softbank-s-sarawak-campus-worth-us-500-million) ### Taiwanese tungsten exporters will face squeezed margins in 2027. Taiwan · 10 Nov 2026 · Unresolved On 9 November Vietnam's Masan High-Tech Materials signed a non-binding MOU for Japan's Sojitz to buy 5% of the company and distribute its tungsten in Japan, with definitive deals due by end-2026. The announcement came as Japan and Vietnam agreed to deepen cooperation on critical minerals. [Read the analysis](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/211/taiwanese-tungsten-exporters-will-face-squeezed-margins-in-2027) ## All predictions Every prediction, with the date it was made and its outcome so far. **207 predictions on the record** · 31 Jul 2026 to 12 Nov 2026 - [China](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=china): 37 - [Japan](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=japan): 36 - [Indonesia](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=indonesia): 29 - [South Korea](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=south-korea): 27 - [India](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=india): 18 - [Taiwan](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=taiwan): 14 - [Thailand](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=thailand): 12 - [Vietnam](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=vietnam): 8 - [Malaysia](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=malaysia): 4 - [Hong Kong](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=hong-kong): 2 - [Singapore](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=singapore): 1 | Made | Market | Prediction | Outcome | | ----------- | --------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------- | | 12 Nov 2026 | Taiwan | [Samsung Electro-Mechanics would capture a larger share of US AI-chip substrate orders in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/213/samsung-electro-mechanics-would-capture-a-larger-share-of-us-ai-chip-substrate-o) | Unresolved | | 10 Nov 2026 | Malaysia, Japan | [NVIDIA will win AI GPU orders for SoftBank’s Sarawak campus worth US$500 million.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/212/nvidia-will-win-ai-gpu-orders-for-softbank-s-sarawak-campus-worth-us-500-million) | Unresolved | | 10 Nov 2026 | Taiwan | [Taiwanese tungsten exporters will face squeezed margins in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/211/taiwanese-tungsten-exporters-will-face-squeezed-margins-in-2027) | Unresolved | | 9 Nov 2026 | Taiwan | [Nvidia will place additional AI memory orders with SK hynix or Samsung by the end of 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/210/nvidia-will-place-additional-ai-memory-orders-with-sk-hynix-or-samsung-by-the-en) | Unresolved | | 9 Nov 2026 | China | [Costly winter gas purchases will push CPC’s accumulated losses to about NT$127.6 billion by the end of 2026](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/209/costly-winter-gas-purchases-will-push-cpc-s-accumulated-losses-to-about-nt-127-6) | Unresolved | | 6 Nov 2026 | China | [Nvidia is likely to win additional computing orders by the end of 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/208/nvidia-is-likely-to-win-additional-computing-orders-by-the-end-of-2027) | Unresolved | | 6 Nov 2026 | Taiwan | [TSMC will secure increased deposits on its cash deposits by June 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/207/tsmc-will-secure-increased-deposits-on-its-cash-deposits-by-june-2027) | Unresolved | [See all 207](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## How we resolve A prediction lives in public from the day it is made to the day it is judged. [How outcomes are judged](https://bilby.ai/predictions/how-we-resolve) ### Built on sources Each prediction starts from what Bilby reads at source, from ministries, regulators and the press, and cites the documents it rests on. ### Made in public It is published the day it is made, with the reasoning behind it, and it keeps that date. ### Judged on its claim When its date comes, an analyst checks the central claim against what happened and marks it true or false, with the evidence and the date it was judged. ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)