--- title: "All predictions" description: "Every prediction on the record, newest first, with whether it came true." url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/log" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/log.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # All predictions Every prediction, with the date it was made and its outcome so far. **207 predictions on the record** · 31 Jul 2026 to 12 Nov 2026 - [China](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=china): 37 - [Japan](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=japan): 36 - [Indonesia](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=indonesia): 29 - [South Korea](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=south-korea): 27 - [India](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=india): 18 - [Taiwan](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=taiwan): 14 - [Thailand](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=thailand): 12 - [Vietnam](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=vietnam): 8 - [Malaysia](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=malaysia): 4 - [Hong Kong](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=hong-kong): 2 - [Singapore](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=singapore): 1 | Made | Market | Prediction | Outcome | | ----------- | -------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------- | | 12 Nov 2026 | Taiwan | [Samsung Electro-Mechanics would capture a larger share of US AI-chip substrate orders in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/213/samsung-electro-mechanics-would-capture-a-larger-share-of-us-ai-chip-substrate-o) | Unresolved | | 10 Nov 2026 | Malaysia, Japan | [NVIDIA will win AI GPU orders for SoftBank’s Sarawak campus worth US$500 million.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/212/nvidia-will-win-ai-gpu-orders-for-softbank-s-sarawak-campus-worth-us-500-million) | Unresolved | | 10 Nov 2026 | Taiwan | [Taiwanese tungsten exporters will face squeezed margins in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/211/taiwanese-tungsten-exporters-will-face-squeezed-margins-in-2027) | Unresolved | | 9 Nov 2026 | Taiwan | [Nvidia will place additional AI memory orders with SK hynix or Samsung by the end of 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/210/nvidia-will-place-additional-ai-memory-orders-with-sk-hynix-or-samsung-by-the-en) | Unresolved | | 9 Nov 2026 | China | [Costly winter gas purchases will push CPC’s accumulated losses to about NT$127.6 billion by the end of 2026](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/209/costly-winter-gas-purchases-will-push-cpc-s-accumulated-losses-to-about-nt-127-6) | Unresolved | | 6 Nov 2026 | China | [Nvidia is likely to win additional computing orders by the end of 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/208/nvidia-is-likely-to-win-additional-computing-orders-by-the-end-of-2027) | Unresolved | | 6 Nov 2026 | Taiwan | [TSMC will secure increased deposits on its cash deposits by June 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/207/tsmc-will-secure-increased-deposits-on-its-cash-deposits-by-june-2027) | Unresolved | | 5 Nov 2026 | Thailand | [Amazon Web Services is likely to make less profit on its fixed-price Thai cloud services in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/206/amazon-web-services-is-likely-to-make-less-profit-on-its-fixed-price-thai-cloud-) | Unresolved | | 5 Nov 2026 | China | [China’s IPO restrictions will redirect billions of yuan towards private financing.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/205/china-s-ipo-restrictions-will-redirect-billions-of-yuan-towards-private-financin) | Unresolved | | 4 Nov 2026 | Thailand | [MG is likely to capture at least 18% of Thailand’s EV market in the first nine months of 2027, up from 14.2% a year earlier.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/204/mg-is-likely-to-capture-at-least-18-of-thailand-s-ev-market-in-the-first-nine-mo) | Unresolved | | 4 Nov 2026 | South Korea | [Rhythm Pharmaceuticals is likely to exceed US$750 million in rare-obesity drug sales in 2027, more than double the annual sales pace implied by its third-quarter 2026 results.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/203/rhythm-pharmaceuticals-is-likely-to-exceed-us-750-million-in-rare-obesity-drug-s) | Unresolved | | 4 Nov 2026 | China | [German chemicals producer BASF is likely to announce a new multi-year supply contract in China from Zhanjiang by the end of 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/202/german-chemicals-producer-basf-is-likely-to-announce-a-new-multi-year-supply-con) | Unresolved | | 3 Nov 2026 | Taiwan | [Xiaomi will forgo about US$550 million in Q1 2027 smartphone revenue as its global shipment share drops from 12.1% in Q3 2026 to below 11%.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/201/xiaomi-will-forgo-about-us-550-million-in-q1-2027-smartphone-revenue-as-its-glob) | Unresolved | | 3 Nov 2026 | Indonesia | [ANTAM’s nickel operating profit will reach at least Rp15 trillion (US$830 million) in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/200/antam-s-nickel-operating-profit-will-reach-at-least-rp15-trillion-us-830-million) | Unresolved | | 30 Oct 2026 | Thailand | [Thailand’s data-centre expansion will favour established operator True IDC over newcomer DAMAC.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/199/thailand-s-data-centre-expansion-will-favour-established-operator-true-idc-over-) | Unresolved | | 30 Oct 2026 | China | [Chinese drugmaker WuXi AppTec faces a December investor exodus as US restrictions tighten.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/198/chinese-drugmaker-wuxi-apptec-faces-a-december-investor-exodus-as-us-restriction) | Unresolved | | 30 Oct 2026 | China | [Sinopec is set to lose US$150–300 million in fuel revenue by the end of 2026.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/197/sinopec-is-set-to-lose-us-150-300-million-in-fuel-revenue-by-the-end-of-2026) | Unresolved | | 29 Oct 2026 | Vietnam | [Vietnam’s e-commerce crackdown will favour Shopee over TikTok.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/196/vietnam-s-e-commerce-crackdown-will-favour-shopee-over-tiktok) | Unresolved | | 29 Oct 2026 | India | [Reliance Industries’ diesel export margins will come under pressure in 2027, putting roughly US$6 billion in annual gross profit at risk.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/195/reliance-industries-diesel-export-margins-will-come-under-pressure-in-2027-putti) | Unresolved | | 29 Oct 2026 | China | [Chinese chip-equipment makers Naura, AMEC, and Piotech will book record orders through 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/194/chinese-chip-equipment-makers-naura-amec-and-piotech-will-book-record-orders-thr) | Unresolved | | 28 Oct 2026 | Malaysia | [Malaysia’s AI investment boom will tilt towards Sarawak as Johor struggles to secure power.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/193/malaysia-s-ai-investment-boom-will-tilt-towards-sarawak-as-johor-struggles-to-se) | Unresolved | | 28 Oct 2026 | Malaysia | [Malaysia’s decision to ease rare-earth export restrictions will give US-backed companies greater access, challenging Australian producer Lynas.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/192/malaysia-s-decision-to-ease-rare-earth-export-restrictions-will-give-us-backed-c) | Unresolved | | 28 Oct 2026 | Indonesia | [Jakarta’s reform plan is unlikely to reverse MSCI to move Indonesia to Standalone Market status by 30 June 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/191/jakarta-s-reform-plan-is-unlikely-to-reverse-msci-to-move-indonesia-to-standalon) | Unresolved | | 27 Oct 2026 | Japan | [Japan’s government preferential debt for local banks will greatly aid its data centre boom.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/190/japan-s-government-preferential-debt-for-local-banks-will-greatly-aid-its-data-c) | Unresolved | | 27 Oct 2026 | China, Japan | [China’s government signals a coal buying push — Australian coal is a winner, while Japanese and South Korean power utilities are the likely losers.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/189/china-s-government-signals-a-coal-buying-push-australian-coal-is-a-winner-while-) | Unresolved | | 27 Oct 2026 | South Korea | [Washington’s South Korean advanced memory chipmaker anti-China restrictions will hit Samsung much harder than Beijing.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/188/washington-s-south-korean-advanced-memory-chipmaker-anti-china-restrictions-will) | Unresolved | | 26 Oct 2026 | South Korea | [South Korea’s steel market pushes back on China yet harder.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/187/south-korea-s-steel-market-pushes-back-on-china-yet-harder) | Unresolved | | 26 Oct 2026 | Thailand | [Thailand’s online advertisers are going away from TikTok to Meta.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/186/thailand-s-online-advertisers-are-going-away-from-tiktok-to-meta) | Unresolved | | 26 Oct 2026 | China | [US chip design software firms will be squeezed yet further by Beijing’s EDA push.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/185/us-chip-design-software-firms-will-be-squeezed-yet-further-by-beijing-s-eda-push) | Unresolved | | 23 Oct 2026 | Japan | [Japan’s passenger EVs are turning Chinese.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/184/japan-s-passenger-evs-are-turning-chinese) | Unresolved | | 23 Oct 2026 | Singapore | [Singapore gas is going to shift towards buying American.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/183/singapore-gas-is-going-to-shift-towards-buying-american) | Unresolved | | 23 Oct 2026 | Taiwan | [Taiwan’s chipmakers will be hit by a big power bill in January.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/182/taiwan-s-chipmakers-will-be-hit-by-a-big-power-bill-in-january) | Unresolved | | 22 Oct 2026 | Japan | [Japanese electronic components manufacturer Ibiden’s estimated 70–80% share of the high-end AI server substrate market will fall below 70% by early 2028.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/181/japanese-electronic-components-manufacturer-ibiden-s-estimated-70-80-share-of-th) | Unresolved | | 22 Oct 2026 | Taiwan | [SSW Partners will agree to acquire foodpanda Taiwan by 31 December 2027 for less than US$500 million – at least 17% below Grab’s rejected US$600 million offer.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/180/ssw-partners-will-agree-to-acquire-foodpanda-taiwan-by-31-december-2027-for-less) | Unresolved | | 21 Oct 2026 | Vietnam | [EVN's Quảng Trạch II power plant will start operating at least six months later than its planned April 2030 opening, putting Vietcombank into financial risk.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/177/evn-s-quang-trach-ii-power-plant-will-start-operating-at-least-six-months-later-) | Unresolved | | 21 Oct 2026 | South Korea | [Samsung Electronics will secure at least KRW 1 trillion (US$700 million) in state-backed supplier loan guarantees by 30 June 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/176/samsung-electronics-will-secure-at-least-krw-1-trillion-us-700-million-in-state-) | Unresolved | | 21 Oct 2026 | China | [At least two major Chinese companies will delay their Hong Kong stock market listings in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/175/at-least-two-major-chinese-companies-will-delay-their-hong-kong-stock-market-lis) | Unresolved | | 20 Oct 2026 | South Korea | [South Korean solar-panel maker Hanwha Solutions will earn an additional US$100 million in operating profit through 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/174/south-korean-solar-panel-maker-hanwha-solutions-will-earn-an-additional-us-100-m) | Unresolved | | 20 Oct 2026 | Indonesia | [MSCI will confirm Indonesia’s downgrade from Emerging Market to Standalone Market status by 30 June 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/173/msci-will-confirm-indonesia-s-downgrade-from-emerging-market-to-standalone-marke) | Unresolved | | 20 Oct 2026 | Japan | [Japan’s 10-year government bond yield will continue to rise for the next 9 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/172/japan-s-10-year-government-bond-yield-will-continue-to-rise-for-the-next-9-month) | Unresolved | | 16 Oct 2026 | South Korea | [SK hynix will lose NAND wafer orders costing $1.5–3.5 billion in foregone 2027 revenues.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/171/sk-hynix-will-lose-nand-wafer-orders-costing-1-5-3-5-billion-in-foregone-2027-re) | Unresolved | | 16 Oct 2026 | China | [BYD will announce a second European car plant by mid-2027 as Chinese carmakers move more hybrid production into EU factories over the next 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/170/byd-will-announce-a-second-european-car-plant-by-mid-2027-as-chinese-carmakers-m) | Unresolved | | 16 Oct 2026 | Taiwan | [By March 2027, TSMC will announce a Texas chip factory for Elon Musk’s companies, capturing US$3–3.6 billion in chip revenues away from intel.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/169/by-march-2027-tsmc-will-announce-a-texas-chip-factory-for-elon-musk-s-companies-) | Unresolved | | 15 Oct 2026 | China | [BYD will lose market share to SAIC in China’s new-energy vehicle market by March 2027, with BYD’s retail share falling below 21.8%.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/168/byd-will-lose-market-share-to-saic-in-china-s-new-energy-vehicle-market-by-march) | Unresolved | | 15 Oct 2026 | India | [India will avoid new US tariffs under the Graham Act when President Trump makes his decision on 18 October.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/167/india-will-avoid-new-us-tariffs-under-the-graham-act-when-president-trump-makes-) | True | | 15 Oct 2026 | Japan | [Tokyo Electron will secure around US$1 billion in equipment orders for GlobalFoundries’ first new chip factory in New York by the end of 2028.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/166/tokyo-electron-will-secure-around-us-1-billion-in-equipment-orders-for-globalfou) | Unresolved | | 14 Oct 2026 | Indonesia | [Indonesia will not impose a binding nationwide vape ban before 31 March 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/165/indonesia-will-not-impose-a-binding-nationwide-vape-ban-before-31-march-2027) | Unresolved | | 14 Oct 2026 | South Korea | [China’s CXMT will raise its share of global DRAM sales from 9.5% to at least 12% by the end of 2027, gaining roughly US$3.9 billion revenue at the expense of Samsung and SK hynix.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/164/china-s-cxmt-will-raise-its-share-of-global-dram-sales-from-9-5-to-at-least-12-b) | Unresolved | | 14 Oct 2026 | India | [India’s state-owned power producer NTPC will fail to secure binding green ammonia or methanol export contracts by the end of 2027, forgoing US$120 million a year in export premiums.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/163/india-s-state-owned-power-producer-ntpc-will-fail-to-secure-binding-green-ammoni) | Unresolved | | 12 Oct 2026 | Indonesia | [Korean battery makers LG and Hyundai will see their share of Indonesia’s battery manufacture fall below 30%, losing significant ground to Chinese rivals by the end of 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/162/korean-battery-makers-lg-and-hyundai-will-see-their-share-of-indonesia-s-battery) | Unresolved | | 12 Oct 2026 | India | [Natco Pharma’s cancer-drug sales in India will fall 20% by March 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/161/natco-pharma-s-cancer-drug-sales-in-india-will-fall-20-by-march-2027) | Unresolved | | 12 Oct 2026 | Taiwan | [Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Quanta Computer will sign a licensing agreement with US power-technology firm Vicor by the end of 2027, paying royalties upwards of $100 million dollars on its AI server exports.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/160/taiwanese-electronics-manufacturer-quanta-computer-will-sign-a-licensing-agreeme) | Unresolved | | 9 Oct 2026 | China | [A weak RMB will exacerbate the woes of French automakers Stellantis and Renault, putting further pressure on the EU to impose import quotas.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/159/a-weak-rmb-will-exacerbate-the-woes-of-french-automakers-stellantis-and-renault-) | Unresolved | | 9 Oct 2026 | Indonesia | [GoTo’s Gojek unit will report 2026 adjusted EBITDA below its Rp1.4 trillion guidance floor.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/158/goto-s-gojek-unit-will-report-2026-adjusted-ebitda-below-its-rp1-4-trillion-guid) | Unresolved | | 9 Oct 2026 | South Korea | [Novo Nordisk Korea will lose about 100 billion to 175 billion won of Wegovy revenue over the next 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/157/novo-nordisk-korea-will-lose-about-100-billion-to-175-billion-won-of-wegovy-reve) | Unresolved | | 8 Oct 2026 | Taiwan | [Micron will agree to a permanent profit share of 3 to 5 percent with its Taiwan unions by 30 November 2026.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/156/micron-will-agree-to-a-permanent-profit-share-of-3-to-5-percent-with-its-taiwan-) | Unresolved | | 8 Oct 2026 | Japan | [Insmed's Brinsupri will reach annual Japanese sales of more than twice its peak forecast within 18 months of listing, exposing Insmed to a ¥9.8 billion price cut.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/155/insmed-s-brinsupri-will-reach-annual-japanese-sales-of-more-than-twice-its-peak-) | Unresolved | | 8 Oct 2026 | Indonesia | [Indonesian e-commerce platforms will forgo roughly $400 million in fee revenue over 12 months from late October 2026, with Shopee losing the most at about $220 million.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/154/indonesian-e-commerce-platforms-will-forgo-roughly-400-million-in-fee-revenue-ov) | Unresolved | | 7 Oct 2026 | Indonesia | [Nike's global footwear production share in Indonesia will reduce from 27% to 22% by the end of 2028.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/153/nike-s-global-footwear-production-share-in-indonesia-will-reduce-from-27-to-22-b) | Unresolved | | 7 Oct 2026 | South Korea | [South Korea’s share of Mexico’s vehicle-parts imports will fall from 6.3% to below 5.0% in 2027, risking also some US market access.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/152/south-korea-s-share-of-mexico-s-vehicle-parts-imports-will-fall-from-6-3-to-belo) | Unresolved | | 7 Oct 2026 | Japan | [SoftBank Group will announce at least ¥1 trillion of additional asset-backed financing by March 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/151/softbank-group-will-announce-at-least-1-trillion-of-additional-asset-backed-fina) | Unresolved | | 6 Oct 2026 | Japan, South Korea | [South Korea's S-Oil will earn less per barrel from refining than Japan’s ENEOS in the first quarter of 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/149/south-korea-s-s-oil-will-earn-less-per-barrel-from-refining-than-japan-s-eneos-i) | Unresolved | | 6 Oct 2026 | Japan | [Iluka Resources will sign a binding multi-year dysprosium and terbium supply agreement with a Japanese buyer within 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/148/iluka-resources-will-sign-a-binding-multi-year-dysprosium-and-terbium-supply-agr) | Unresolved | | 6 Oct 2026 | South Korea | [A consortium led by SK Telecom will be chosen to lead South Korea’s new state-funded frontier AI project by 30 June 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/147/a-consortium-led-by-sk-telecom-will-be-chosen-to-lead-south-korea-s-new-state-fu) | Unresolved | | 5 Oct 2026 | China | [Beijing is likely to close its new chemical trade case against the EU by October 2027 with relatively mild duties of 20% or less.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/146/beijing-is-likely-to-close-its-new-chemical-trade-case-against-the-eu-by-october) | Unresolved | | 5 Oct 2026 | India | [The United States and India will not sign their bilateral trade agreement before 31 January 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/145/the-united-states-and-india-will-not-sign-their-bilateral-trade-agreement-before) | Unresolved | | 5 Oct 2026 | South Korea | [Lotte Chemical's basic-chemicals unit will post an operating loss this quarter.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/144/lotte-chemical-s-basic-chemicals-unit-will-post-an-operating-loss-this-quarter) | Unresolved | | 5 Oct 2026 | Indonesia | [Indonesian regulators will redirect export-bound pipeline gas from private producer Medco to PGN, leaving Singapore's pipeline buyers exposed.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/143/indonesian-regulators-will-redirect-export-bound-pipeline-gas-from-private-produ) | Unresolved | | 2 Oct 2026 | China | [Expect Chinese manufacturers to accelerate production localisation in Vietnam through 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/142/expect-chinese-manufacturers-to-accelerate-production-localisation-in-vietnam-th) | Unresolved | | 2 Oct 2026 | Japan | [Nippon Steel flat-steel orders in Europe will rise by end-2027 as tighter origin tracing squeezes Chinese steel out of the EU market.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/141/nippon-steel-flat-steel-orders-in-europe-will-rise-by-end-2027-as-tighter-origin) | Unresolved | | 2 Oct 2026 | Indonesia | [Malaysia's share of India's palm oil imports will rise above 42% by mid-2027, with SD Guthrie International to displace Indonesian supply.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/140/malaysia-s-share-of-india-s-palm-oil-imports-will-rise-above-42-by-mid-2027-with) | Unresolved | | 30 Sep 2026 | China | [The share of China's science and technology small firms holding a bank loan will stay below 52% at the end of 2026, up less than 2 points from 50.2% in end-2025.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/139/the-share-of-china-s-science-and-technology-small-firms-holding-a-bank-loan-will) | Unresolved | | 30 Sep 2026 | India | [The IRDAI, India's insurance regulator, will notify final rules by June 2027 that keep a newly proposed 12.5% five-year expense ceiling for life insurers and the 2% cap on lender-sold credit life commissions, despite heavy lobbying from banks, insurers and brokers.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/138/the-irdai-india-s-insurance-regulator-will-notify-final-rules-by-june-2027-that-) | Unresolved | | 30 Sep 2026 | Japan | [The US share of Japan's crude imports will average below 25% across January to March 2027, down from 36% in July, even after Tokyo's planned oil security bills become law.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/137/the-us-share-of-japan-s-crude-imports-will-average-below-25-across-january-to-ma) | Unresolved | | 29 Sep 2026 | India | [A fresh public-interest litigation invoking Section 100 of the Patents Act against another high-cost patented drug will surface in a different Indian High Court within six months, with Merck & Co, Novartis, Pfizer and Roche all facing renewed scrutiny of their India oncology and rare-disease portfolios.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/136/a-fresh-public-interest-litigation-invoking-section-100-of-the-patents-act-again) | Unresolved | | 29 Sep 2026 | China | [Vietnam's US shipments of the toys, bedding and kitchenware on the 77-item US-China tariff-cut list will still be at least 50% above their 2024 level in the first half of 2027, with LEGO, Mattel and Hasbro among those keeping their Vietnamese output.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/135/vietnam-s-us-shipments-of-the-toys-bedding-and-kitchenware-on-the-77-item-us-chi) | Unresolved | | 29 Sep 2026 | China | [A Chinese-owned battery recycler other than Gotion, most likely CATL's Brunp, Huayou Recycling or GEM, will announce a battery recycling or black mass processing site in an EU country by June 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/134/a-chinese-owned-battery-recycler-other-than-gotion-most-likely-catl-s-brunp-huay) | Unresolved | | 29 Sep 2026 | Japan | [Japanese police, prosecutors or the Japan Fair Trade Commission will announce at least one new arrest, indictment or cease-and-desist order over a public proposal competition within 12 months, most likely where a firm obtained rivals' proposals from a public official.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/133/japanese-police-prosecutors-or-the-japan-fair-trade-commission-will-announce-at-) | Unresolved | | 29 Sep 2026 | Indonesia | [DSI will forward at least one Indonesian coal exporter to the Trade or Finance Ministry for sanctions over a suspected price or volume mismatch by 30 June 2027, with significant publicity.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/132/dsi-will-forward-at-least-one-indonesian-coal-exporter-to-the-trade-or-finance-m) | Unresolved | | 28 Sep 2026 | China | [China will hit its pledge to import at least 10 million tonnes of US coal in 2027, making it the only Trump-Xi summit commitment Beijing fulfils cleanly.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/130/china-will-hit-its-pledge-to-import-at-least-10-million-tonnes-of-us-coal-in-202) | Unresolved | | 28 Sep 2026 | Thailand | [China's Neta Auto will become the first automaker forced through Thailand's newly announced electric vehicle subsidy clawback mechanism, with a formal repayment demand or asset freeze against its Thai unit by mid-2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/129/china-s-neta-auto-will-become-the-first-automaker-forced-through-thailand-s-newl) | Unresolved | | 28 Sep 2026 | India | [Indonesian coal exporters stand to gain from India’s power crunch over the next two quarters, with Adani Power the likely loser.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/128/indonesian-coal-exporters-stand-to-gain-from-india-s-power-crunch-over-the-next-) | Unresolved | | 25 Sep 2026 | Japan | [Japanese energy and trading companies will receive windfalls from US crude and LNG within the next two to three quarters — but India and China will be the geopolitical winners.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/126/japanese-energy-and-trading-companies-will-receive-windfalls-from-us-crude-and-l) | Unresolved | | 25 Sep 2026 | India, Japan | [Expect India’s DRI to widen its customs probe to more South Korea and Japanese electronics brands within the next two to three quarters.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/125/expect-india-s-dri-to-widen-its-customs-probe-to-more-south-korea-and-japanese-e) | Unresolved | | 25 Sep 2026 | China | [KPMG and EY will see a gradual erosion of their Chinese state-bank and SOE client base.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/124/kpmg-and-ey-will-see-a-gradual-erosion-of-their-chinese-state-bank-and-soe-clien) | Unresolved | | 24 Sep 2026 | India | [Expect Washington to escalate Russian-oil tariff threats against India after the midterms, with Reliance Industries the likely loser.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/123/expect-washington-to-escalate-russian-oil-tariff-threats-against-india-after-the) | Unresolved | | 24 Sep 2026 | Indonesia | [Indonesian pharmaceutical companies will face a severe margin squeeze over the next two quarters.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/122/indonesian-pharmaceutical-companies-will-face-a-severe-margin-squeeze-over-the-n) | Unresolved | | 23 Sep 2026 | China | [Samsung SDI and SK On will see battery margins fall as Chinese export controls raise input costs.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/121/samsung-sdi-and-sk-on-will-see-battery-margins-fall-as-chinese-export-controls-r) | Unresolved | | 23 Sep 2026 | Japan | [Local Japanese banks will have a good Q3, but Japan’s AI boom will hit a financing hump.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/120/local-japanese-banks-will-have-a-good-q3-but-japan-s-ai-boom-will-hit-a-financin) | Unresolved | | 23 Sep 2026 | India | [Biocon Biologics’ share of India’s trastuzumab and bevacizumab markets will increase at the cost of Roche.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/119/biocon-biologics-share-of-india-s-trastuzumab-and-bevacizumab-markets-will-incre) | Unresolved | | 22 Sep 2026 | Hong Kong | [HSBC and Standard Chartered will take a larger share of China–ASEAN trade finance from Chinese banks.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/118/hsbc-and-standard-chartered-will-take-a-larger-share-of-china-asean-trade-financ) | Unresolved | | 22 Sep 2026 | Indonesia | [Foreign consumer brands will lose e-commerce market share in Indonesia.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/117/foreign-consumer-brands-will-lose-e-commerce-market-share-in-indonesia) | Unresolved | | 22 Sep 2026 | Vietnam, Japan | [Japanese semiconductor firms will gain an expansion advantage in Vietnam over rival foreign manufacturers through 2028.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/116/japanese-semiconductor-firms-will-gain-an-expansion-advantage-in-vietnam-over-ri) | Unresolved | | 21 Sep 2026 | Indonesia | [Indonesia's nickel consolidation will give domestic mine owners greater leverage over foreign smelter operators.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/115/indonesia-s-nickel-consolidation-will-give-domestic-mine-owners-greater-leverage) | Unresolved | | 21 Sep 2026 | Thailand | [Thailand and Vietnam will broaden e-commerce crackdowns through 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/114/thailand-and-vietnam-will-broaden-e-commerce-crackdowns-through-2027) | Unresolved | | 21 Sep 2026 | South Korea | [Korean drugmakers will face a two-sided squeeze: falling returns from generics just as the government pushes them to spend more on R&D.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/113/korean-drugmakers-will-face-a-two-sided-squeeze-falling-returns-from-generics-ju) | Unresolved | | 18 Sep 2026 | Vietnam | [DATC-led restructuring will concentrate Vietnam’s property sector in a handful of better-capitalised firms.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/112/datc-led-restructuring-will-concentrate-vietnam-s-property-sector-in-a-handful-o) | Unresolved | | 18 Sep 2026 | Indonesia | [Indonesia will see a rise in upstream oil and gas investment approvals in 2027 as BUK Migas streamlines major projects clearance.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/111/indonesia-will-see-a-rise-in-upstream-oil-and-gas-investment-approvals-in-2027-a) | Unresolved | | 18 Sep 2026 | Thailand | [Foreign manufacturers will increasingly use Thai-listed subsidiaries as vehicles for Southeast Asia expansion by 2028.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/110/foreign-manufacturers-will-increasingly-use-thai-listed-subsidiaries-as-vehicles) | Unresolved | | 16 Sep 2026 | India | [Trump will not impose the new 100% Russian oil tariff on India before mid-2027, even if the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act becomes law with India named as a top buyer.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/109/trump-will-not-impose-the-new-100-russian-oil-tariff-on-india-before-mid-2027-ev) | Unresolved | | 16 Sep 2026 | Indonesia | [With Indonesia's Anti-Dumping Committe's (KADI) anti-dumping probe into Chinese steel underway, Indonesia will impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel by late 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/108/with-indonesia-s-anti-dumping-committe-s-kadi-anti-dumping-probe-into-chinese-st) | Unresolved | | 16 Sep 2026 | South Korea | [South Korea’s mandatory takeover bid rules will reduce overall corporate acquisition activity in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/107/south-korea-s-mandatory-takeover-bid-rules-will-reduce-overall-corporate-acquisi) | Unresolved | | 15 Sep 2026 | India | [India will not relax rules on Chinese investment within the next twelve months, despite the warmer tone at the BRICS summit.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/106/india-will-not-relax-rules-on-chinese-investment-within-the-next-twelve-months-d) | Unresolved | | 15 Sep 2026 | China | [Chinese SOEs will face short-term credit stress over the next 12 months as Beijing enforces payment cap on large corporations.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/105/chinese-soes-will-face-short-term-credit-stress-over-the-next-12-months-as-beiji) | Unresolved | | 15 Sep 2026 | Indonesia | [TikTok or X, will be fined under Indonesia's new revenue‑based child‑safety sanctions within 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/104/tiktok-or-x-will-be-fined-under-indonesia-s-new-revenue-based-child-safety-sanct) | Unresolved | | 14 Sep 2026 | India | [Despite reserves hitting a record $785.7 billion, the rupee will not meaningfully strengthen and will likely stay within roughly a 94 to 97 per dollar range through year end.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/103/despite-reserves-hitting-a-record-785-7-billion-the-rupee-will-not-meaningfully-) | Unresolved | | 14 Sep 2026 | Indonesia | [Indonesia will import well under half of the pledged 150 million barrels of Russian crude by year end, likely below 60 million.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/102/indonesia-will-import-well-under-half-of-the-pledged-150-million-barrels-of-russ) | Unresolved | | 14 Sep 2026 | Hong Kong | [Hong Kong will raise its Silver Bond ceiling again for the next tranche, likely above HK$60 billion in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/101/hong-kong-will-raise-its-silver-bond-ceiling-again-for-the-next-tranche-likely-a) | Unresolved | | 11 Sep 2026 | China | [China's below-cost dumping crackdown will hit solar and steel export volumes within six months, not domestic prices.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/100/china-s-below-cost-dumping-crackdown-will-hit-solar-and-steel-export-volumes-wit) | Unresolved | | 11 Sep 2026 | Thailand, Japan | [Chinese automakers, not Japanese incumbents, will keep gaining Thai EV market share even after Bangkok's new tiered excise tax rewards local component sourcing.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/99/chinese-automakers-not-japanese-incumbents-will-keep-gaining-thai-ev-market-shar) | Unresolved | | 11 Sep 2026 | Malaysia | [Malaysia's approved Indian-linked manufacturing portfolio will cross US$3.5 billion by mid-2027, but the additional growth will come disproportionately from transport and metals projects rather than pharmaceuticals or renewables.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/98/malaysia-s-approved-indian-linked-manufacturing-portfolio-will-cross-us-3-5-bill) | Unresolved | | 10 Sep 2026 | Indonesia | [Indonesia's plan to mandate 20% bioethanol blending in petrol by 2028 will be scaled back, likely landing near E10 to E12 nationwide rather than full E20.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/97/indonesia-s-plan-to-mandate-20-bioethanol-blending-in-petrol-by-2028-will-be-sca) | Unresolved | | 10 Sep 2026 | Thailand | [Solar panel and battery import costs for Thailand's new household subsidy scheme will run 10 to 15% above budget by mid-2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/96/solar-panel-and-battery-import-costs-for-thailand-s-new-household-subsidy-scheme) | Unresolved | | 10 Sep 2026 | Taiwan | [Samsung's foundry business will not close its gap with TSMC through 2027, despite its $16.5 billion Tesla chip deal being widely cast as a turnaround.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/95/samsung-s-foundry-business-will-not-close-its-gap-with-tsmc-through-2027-despite) | Unresolved | | 9 Sep 2026 | South Korea | [South Korea's newly drafted acqui-hire merger rule will let most Big Tech AI talent raids go unreported in its first year.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/94/south-korea-s-newly-drafted-acqui-hire-merger-rule-will-let-most-big-tech-ai-tal) | Unresolved | | 9 Sep 2026 | Japan | [The Bank of Japan's rate hike to 1.25% this month will be its last for at least four months, not the opening move of a rapid tightening cycle.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/93/the-bank-of-japan-s-rate-hike-to-1-25-this-month-will-be-its-last-for-at-least-f) | Unresolved | | 9 Sep 2026 | India | [26-nation "Call to Action for 6G Leadership and Security" will produce no joint funding pool or binding technical standard within the next twelve months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/92/26-nation-call-to-action-for-6g-leadership-and-security-will-produce-no-joint-fu) | Unresolved | | 8 Sep 2026 | China, Japan | [Beijing's new anti-dumping duties on Japanese dichlorosilane, reaching 99.2%, will end up benefiting South Korean and European chip-material suppliers rather than Chinese producers.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/91/beijing-s-new-anti-dumping-duties-on-japanese-dichlorosilane-reaching-99-2-will-) | Unresolved | | 8 Sep 2026 | South Korea | [France will grant South Korean carmakers only narrow, model-specific exemptions from its EV subsidy rules within a year, not a blanket carve-out from its carbon-score restrictions.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/90/france-will-grant-south-korean-carmakers-only-narrow-model-specific-exemptions-f) | Unresolved | | 8 Sep 2026 | Indonesia | [Bank Rakyat Indonesia and Bank Syariah Indonesia will report tens of millions of new basic accounts within a year of President Prabowo's universal banking order, but a meaningful share of rural welfare payments will initially fail or be delayed.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/89/bank-rakyat-indonesia-and-bank-syariah-indonesia-will-report-tens-of-millions-of) | Unresolved | | 7 Sep 2026 | Indonesia | [Indonesia will quietly ease enforcement on cosmetics and health supplement imports within three months of its October 18 halal certification deadline, even as officials insist there will be no delay.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/88/indonesia-will-quietly-ease-enforcement-on-cosmetics-and-health-supplement-impor) | Unresolved | | 7 Sep 2026 | Thailand | [Thailand's blanket pause on data centre approvals will still be in force well past its promised one-month deadline, stalling more than 166 projects, including 49 already under construction, into 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/87/thailand-s-blanket-pause-on-data-centre-approvals-will-still-be-in-force-well-pa) | Unresolved | | 7 Sep 2026 | China | [10 to 20 of China's smaller, opaque insurers to face forced recapitalisation, control transfers or licence exits within the next 18 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/86/10-to-20-of-china-s-smaller-opaque-insurers-to-face-forced-recapitalisation-cont) | Unresolved | | 4 Sep 2026 | Japan | [JOGMEC's first independently acquired mineral assets will concentrate in politically stable, already-allied jurisdictions like Australia or Canada rather than the higher-risk African or Latin American deposits where China holds its strongest position.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/85/jogmec-s-first-independently-acquired-mineral-assets-will-concentrate-in-politic) | Unresolved | | 4 Sep 2026 | South Korea | [Samsung and SK Hynix's new fabs at the Yongin-Pyeongtaek semiconductor mega-cluster will face transmission and power-connection delays past their original completion targets.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/84/samsung-and-sk-hynix-s-new-fabs-at-the-yongin-pyeongtaek-semiconductor-mega-clus) | Unresolved | | 4 Sep 2026 | China | [Beijing Stock Exchange IPOs from "specialised and sophisticated" tech SMEs will rise by at least 50% over the next 18 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/83/beijing-stock-exchange-ipos-from-specialised-and-sophisticated-tech-smes-will-ri) | Unresolved | | 3 Sep 2026 | China | [Beijing will let the foreign-individual fringe-benefit tax exemption lapse on schedule at the end of 2027 rather than extend it again.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/82/beijing-will-let-the-foreign-individual-fringe-benefit-tax-exemption-lapse-on-sc) | Unresolved | | 3 Sep 2026 | Vietnam | [Vietnam will fall short of its own newly set target of investing 1 to 1.5% of GDP annually in AI in 2027, with the shortfall concentrated in the state's own contribution rather than private capital.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/81/vietnam-will-fall-short-of-its-own-newly-set-target-of-investing-1-to-1-5-of-gdp) | Unresolved | | 3 Sep 2026 | South Korea | [Samsung and SK Hynix will secure formal exemption or reduced tariff treatment under Washington's semiconductor tariff offset programme within six months without pledging a single new dollar of US investment.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/80/samsung-and-sk-hynix-will-secure-formal-exemption-or-reduced-tariff-treatment-un) | Unresolved | | 2 Sep 2026 | China | [Chinese EV export prices in Southeast Asia will keep falling through early 2027 despite new compliance guidelines discouraging price wars by Chinese carmakers abroad.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/79/chinese-ev-export-prices-in-southeast-asia-will-keep-falling-through-early-2027-) | Unresolved | | 2 Sep 2026 | India | [India's semiconductor trade deficit will widen in absolute dollar terms through 2028, even as officials tout falling import dependence.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/78/india-s-semiconductor-trade-deficit-will-widen-in-absolute-dollar-terms-through-) | Unresolved | | 2 Sep 2026 | Japan | [Tokyo will approve one more supplementary budget for fuel subsidies before the fiscal year ends in March 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/77/tokyo-will-approve-one-more-supplementary-budget-for-fuel-subsidies-before-the-f) | Unresolved | | 1 Sep 2026 | South Korea | [Beijing will impose at least one new retaliatory trade measure targeting South Korean firms within three months, using Seoul's new export licensing regime for advanced chips as the pretext.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/76/beijing-will-impose-at-least-one-new-retaliatory-trade-measure-targeting-south-k) | Unresolved | | 1 Sep 2026 | China | [Russia's oil and gas exports to China will not meaningfully increase following the Xi-Putin Bishkek meeting, keeping Moscow reliant on discounted crude sales.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/75/russia-s-oil-and-gas-exports-to-china-will-not-meaningfully-increase-following-t) | Unresolved | | 1 Sep 2026 | Vietnam | [Viettel and VNPT will report R&D spending near 3% of revenue within two years, though most of the increase will come from relabelling existing technology costs rather than genuine new research.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/74/viettel-and-vnpt-will-report-r-d-spending-near-3-of-revenue-within-two-years-tho) | Unresolved | | 31 Aug 2026 | China | [China's new-home prices will keep falling on a year-on-year basis through at least the first quarter of 2027, even as sales volumes stabilise following a property financing overhaul.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/73/china-s-new-home-prices-will-keep-falling-on-a-year-on-year-basis-through-at-lea) | Unresolved | | 31 Aug 2026 | Indonesia, Japan | [Indonesia will add at least one of Japan or South Korea to its list of designated countries eligible for the relaxed export proceeds rule within the next 6 to 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/72/indonesia-will-add-at-least-one-of-japan-or-south-korea-to-its-list-of-designate) | True | | 31 Aug 2026 | Taiwan | [Taiwan will see at least one more major electronics supplier investigated for mislabelling Chinese-made components as domestic within six months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/71/taiwan-will-see-at-least-one-more-major-electronics-supplier-investigated-for-mi) | Unresolved | | 28 Aug 2026 | Thailand | [ASEAN's new digital skills passport will launch within a year as a pilot covering fewer than half of the bloc's ten member states, with early credential recognition concentrated in high-value sectors like EVs and data centres.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/70/asean-s-new-digital-skills-passport-will-launch-within-a-year-as-a-pilot-coverin) | Unresolved | | 28 Aug 2026 | Indonesia | [Indonesia's GDP growth will land between 5.2 and 5.4% in 2027, well below the 6% figure Jakarta used to build its expansive draft budget, forcing a revision of fiscal assumptions within the year.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/69/indonesia-s-gdp-growth-will-land-between-5-2-and-5-4-in-2027-well-below-the-6-fi) | Unresolved | | 28 Aug 2026 | Taiwan | [Taiwan's first NT$40 billion tranche of annual spending under its newly passed drone procurement act will not clear the legislature by the start of FY2027, sliding into mid-year.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/68/taiwan-s-first-nt-40-billion-tranche-of-annual-spending-under-its-newly-passed-d) | Unresolved | | 27 Aug 2026 | Indonesia | [Indonesia's crude oil output will finish 2026 at least 5% below its 610,000 barrels per day target.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/67/indonesia-s-crude-oil-output-will-finish-2026-at-least-5-below-its-610-000-barre) | Unresolved | | 27 Aug 2026 | Thailand | [Thailand's 70%-of-GDP public debt ceiling will be raised again within 12 months, despite the finance ministry's assurances a new 400 billion baht loan decree stays under it.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/66/thailand-s-70-of-gdp-public-debt-ceiling-will-be-raised-again-within-12-months-d) | Unresolved | | 27 Aug 2026 | South Korea | [South Korea will not submit a formal CPTPP application in 2026, and will instead unveil an expanded farmer and fisher compensation fund, likely exceeding 1 trillion won, before any Cabinet decision to apply.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/65/south-korea-will-not-submit-a-formal-cptpp-application-in-2026-and-will-instead-) | Unresolved | | 26 Aug 2026 | Japan | [Japan will move beyond its non-binding AI training data disclosure guidelines to draft legislation with financial penalties for non-disclosure within the next 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/64/japan-will-move-beyond-its-non-binding-ai-training-data-disclosure-guidelines-to) | Unresolved | | 26 Aug 2026 | | [USTR will formally open a Section 301 investigation into Korea's treatment of Coupang within 90 days, citing this week's blocked inspection as fresh evidence.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/63/ustr-will-formally-open-a-section-301-investigation-into-korea-s-treatment-of-co) | Unresolved | | 26 Aug 2026 | | [At least one centrally administered Chinese energy SOE, most likely China Huaneng, Datang or State Power Investment, will announce a senior executive reshuffle or early retirement tied to environmental compliance within 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/62/at-least-one-centrally-administered-chinese-energy-soe-most-likely-china-huaneng) | Unresolved | | 25 Aug 2026 | Japan | [Within a year of a new tax deferral scheme taking effect, at least three of Japan's largest conglomerates will announce non-core carve outs worth over $1 billion each.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/61/within-a-year-of-a-new-tax-deferral-scheme-taking-effect-at-least-three-of-japan) | Unresolved | | 25 Aug 2026 | | [Fewer than ten of the roughly 30 firms Indonesia is investigating over this year's forest fires will have their permits permanently revoked by mid-2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/60/fewer-than-ten-of-the-roughly-30-firms-indonesia-is-investigating-over-this-year) | Unresolved | | 25 Aug 2026 | | [Taiwan's government will introduce an amendment to the Foreign Trade Act to criminalise unauthorised chip exports to China before the end of 2026.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/59/taiwan-s-government-will-introduce-an-amendment-to-the-foreign-trade-act-to-crim) | Unresolved | | 24 Aug 2026 | | [Indonesian palm oil shipments to the EU will not rise more than 5% in the first half of 2027, despite an incoming CEPA eliminating tariffs on the sector.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/58/indonesian-palm-oil-shipments-to-the-eu-will-not-rise-more-than-5-in-the-first-h) | Unresolved | | 24 Aug 2026 | | [Korea's new Future Response Fund will report a net funding shortfall within the next memory-chip downturn, plausibly by fiscal 2028 or 2029.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/57/korea-s-new-future-response-fund-will-report-a-net-funding-shortfall-within-the-) | Unresolved | | 24 Aug 2026 | | [China's expanded interest subsidy will not lift retail sales above 1.5% year-on-year through year end.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/56/china-s-expanded-interest-subsidy-will-not-lift-retail-sales-above-1-5-year-on-y) | Unresolved | | 21 Aug 2026 | | [US Customs will subject at least one more Vietnamese export sector, likely solar cells, steel or furniture, for enhanced transshipment enforcement within 90 days, despite Hanoi's new crackdown pledges.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/55/us-customs-will-subject-at-least-one-more-vietnamese-export-sector-likely-solar-) | Unresolved | | 21 Aug 2026 | Japan | [Toyota, Honda and Nissan will avoid any EV assembly-line halt through year-end despite Japan's rare earth crunch.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/54/toyota-honda-and-nissan-will-avoid-any-ev-assembly-line-halt-through-year-end-de) | Unresolved | | 21 Aug 2026 | | [Malaysia will approve a Chinese state-linked rare earth refining joint venture within the next 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/53/malaysia-will-approve-a-chinese-state-linked-rare-earth-refining-joint-venture-w) | Unresolved | | 20 Aug 2026 | Japan | [Operating margins at Japan's listed construction and logistics firms will expand by more than 50 basis points by March 2027, even without new capital investment.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/52/operating-margins-at-japan-s-listed-construction-and-logistics-firms-will-expand) | Unresolved | | 20 Aug 2026 | | [Fewer than half of China's ten data cooperation pilot cities will sign a concrete cross-border data-sharing agreement with a named foreign government or platform within six months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/51/fewer-than-half-of-china-s-ten-data-cooperation-pilot-cities-will-sign-a-concret) | Unresolved | | 20 Aug 2026 | | [Hong Kong will still post faster year-on-year growth in assets under management than Singapore through 2027, despite Singapore's new policies to lure asset management firms.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/50/hong-kong-will-still-post-faster-year-on-year-growth-in-assets-under-management-) | Unresolved | | 19 Aug 2026 | | [The number of new investor-state claims notified against Vietnam in 2027 won't fall below the 2024-2026 average, despite Hanoi's new dispute-resolution decree being framed as "prevention."](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/49/the-number-of-new-investor-state-claims-notified-against-vietnam-in-2027-won-t-f) | Unresolved | | 19 Aug 2026 | | [Malaysia's Budget 2027 will shelve the GST-SST merger floated in the pre-budget statement, leaving it "under study" past the October tabling.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/48/malaysia-s-budget-2027-will-shelve-the-gst-sst-merger-floated-in-the-pre-budget-) | True | | 19 Aug 2026 | | [China's new county-level stimulus won't lift rural retail growth beyond its current 2.4% pace by year-end.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/47/china-s-new-county-level-stimulus-won-t-lift-rural-retail-growth-beyond-its-curr) | Unresolved | | 18 Aug 2026 | | [China's crude oil imports will keep climbing toward roughly 570-580 million tonnes in 2026, extending 2025's rebound.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/46/china-s-crude-oil-imports-will-keep-climbing-toward-roughly-570-580-million-tonn) | Unresolved | | 18 Aug 2026 | | [A Chinese state reactor developer will make it onto Singapore's first formal shortlist of nuclear vendors.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/45/a-chinese-state-reactor-developer-will-make-it-onto-singapore-s-first-formal-sho) | Unresolved | | 18 Aug 2026 | | [Beijing will cut the reserve requirement ratio by no more than 25–50 basis points before October, but will not launch a nationwide cash-handout or consumption-voucher scheme in 2026.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/44/beijing-will-cut-the-reserve-requirement-ratio-by-no-more-than-25-50-basis-point) | Unresolved | | 17 Aug 2026 | | [Taiwan's 2027 defence budget, to be unveiled 20 August, will pass the Legislative Yuan without the KMT-led opposition stripping more than 5% of its proposed NT$1.1 trillion total.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/43/taiwan-s-2027-defence-budget-to-be-unveiled-20-august-will-pass-the-legislative-) | Unresolved | | 17 Aug 2026 | | [A Chinese firm — not a Western or Korean one — will be first to break ground on a new Vietnamese rare-earth or battery-material processing plant within 12 months of Hanoi's new materials directive.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/42/a-chinese-firm-not-a-western-or-korean-one-will-be-first-to-break-ground-on-a-ne) | Unresolved | | 17 Aug 2026 | | [Regulators will publicly discipline at least one bank within 12 months for enabling disguised capital flight through China's new nationwide cross-border cash-pooling rules.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/41/regulators-will-publicly-discipline-at-least-one-bank-within-12-months-for-enabl) | Unresolved | | 14 Aug 2026 | South Korea | [South Korea's industrial electricity tariffs up by more than 5% cumulatively by 2028 if its new climate law is enacted, as state utility KEPCO passes through rising carbon-allowance costs.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/40/south-korea-s-industrial-electricity-tariffs-up-by-more-than-5-cumulatively-by-2) | Unresolved | | 14 Aug 2026 | Japan | [At least one major offshore wind developer will withdraw from or downsize a Japanese project within six months, despite Tokyo's subsidy hike to ¥700,000/kW.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/39/at-least-one-major-offshore-wind-developer-will-withdraw-from-or-downsize-a-japa) | True | | 14 Aug 2026 | | [Indonesia will commission less than 3GW of new solar capacity in 2026, missing Prabowo's 30GW target by roughly 90%.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/38/indonesia-will-commission-less-than-3gw-of-new-solar-capacity-in-2026-missing-pr) | Unresolved | | 13 Aug 2026 | | [Fewer than 50 additional funds will successfully claim Hong Kong's broadened carried-interest concession in its first full year, undercutting official enthusiasm.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/37/fewer-than-50-additional-funds-will-successfully-claim-hong-kong-s-broadened-car) | Unresolved | | 13 Aug 2026 | | [State-owned NMDC and SAIL will report no material earnings benefit from India's MMDR Amendment Bill in their Q2 and Q3 FY27 results, despite investor enthusiasm.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/36/state-owned-nmdc-and-sail-will-report-no-material-earnings-benefit-from-india-s-) | Unresolved | | 13 Aug 2026 | | [South Korea's rare-earth dependence on China will still sit above 70% in every category through 2028, despite the new SEED stockpiling and recycling push.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/35/south-korea-s-rare-earth-dependence-on-china-will-still-sit-above-70-in-every-ca) | Unresolved | | 13 Aug 2026 | | [Fewer than 50 additional funds will successfully claim Hong Kong's broadened carried-interest concession in its first full year, undercutting official enthusiasm.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/34/fewer-than-50-additional-funds-will-successfully-claim-hong-kong-s-broadened-car) | Unresolved | | 13 Aug 2026 | | [State-owned NMDC and SAIL will report no material earnings benefit from India's MMDR Amendment Bill in their Q2 and Q3 FY27 results, despite investor enthusiasm.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/33/state-owned-nmdc-and-sail-will-report-no-material-earnings-benefit-from-india-s-) | Unresolved | | 12 Aug 2026 | | [The Indonesian government will begin restricting subsidised Pertalite fuel for private cars above 1,500cc by Q1 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/31/the-indonesian-government-will-begin-restricting-subsidised-pertalite-fuel-for-p) | Unresolved | | 12 Aug 2026 | | [In India, a writ petition challenging the constitutionality of the Tribunals Reforms Act will be filed in the Supreme Court within six months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/30/in-india-a-writ-petition-challenging-the-constitutionality-of-the-tribunals-refo) | Unresolved | | 12 Aug 2026 | | [Wind and solar project permit applications submitted to Korean regional energy offices will rise by more than 40% year-on-year in the next 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/29/wind-and-solar-project-permit-applications-submitted-to-korean-regional-energy-o) | Unresolved | | 12 Aug 2026 | | [Wind and solar project permit applications submitted to Korean regional energy offices will rise by more than 40% year-on-year in the next 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/16/wind-and-solar-project-permit-applications-submitted-to-korean-regional-energy-o) | Unresolved | | 11 Aug 2026 | Japan | [Japan will unveil a formal expansion of its rare-earth and critical-minerals stockpiling programme within the next three months, backed by new supplementary budget funding.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/25/japan-will-unveil-a-formal-expansion-of-its-rare-earth-and-critical-minerals-sto) | Unresolved | | 11 Aug 2026 | Vietnam | [Vietnam's listed-bank non-performing loan ratio will climb past 2.1% by Q4 2026, above the current 1.8% forecast, as new SBV-mandated rate discounts squeeze bank margins.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/24/vietnam-s-listed-bank-non-performing-loan-ratio-will-climb-past-2-1-by-q4-2026-a) | Unresolved | | 11 Aug 2026 | China | [At least 50 million tonnes of small and mid-sized Chinese coal mining capacity will be shut or absorbed into larger state operators by end-2027, with China Shenhua the clearest beneficiary.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/23/at-least-50-million-tonnes-of-small-and-mid-sized-chinese-coal-mining-capacity-w) | Unresolved | | 10 Aug 2026 | South Korea | [Seoul will water down its tax reform plan by restoring the option for Korean retail investors to keep tax breaks on savings accounts that hold US stock funds.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/28/seoul-will-water-down-its-tax-reform-plan-by-restoring-the-option-for-korean-ret) | True | | 10 Aug 2026 | Vietnam | [Vietnam's 2026 GDP growth will land in the 7.5-8.5% range, undershooting the government's reaffirmed 10%-plus target for 2026-2030.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/27/vietnam-s-2026-gdp-growth-will-land-in-the-7-5-8-5-range-undershooting-the-gover) | Unresolved | | 10 Aug 2026 | Japan, South Korea, Taiwan | [At least one Japanese, Korean or Taiwanese wafer or polysilicon producer will announce a new US plant before August 2027 to dodge Washington's Section 232 tariffs.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/26/at-least-one-japanese-korean-or-taiwanese-wafer-or-polysilicon-producer-will-ann) | Unresolved | | 7 Aug 2026 | India | [India will introduce a roughly 0.25-0.3% UPI merchant fee on payments above ₹2,000 within the next 12 months, while keeping person-to-person transfers and small purchases free.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/19/india-will-introduce-a-roughly-0-25-0-3-upi-merchant-fee-on-payments-above-2-000) | Unresolved | | 7 Aug 2026 | China | [A Chinese gold miner such as Zhaojin Mining will announce a new overseas gold-mine acquisition, likely in Africa or Central Asia, within 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/18/a-chinese-gold-miner-such-as-zhaojin-mining-will-announce-a-new-overseas-gold-mi) | Unresolved | | 7 Aug 2026 | Indonesia | [Toyota will confirm a new or expanded battery-electric vehicle assembly line in Indonesia worth at least $100 million by mid-2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/17/toyota-will-confirm-a-new-or-expanded-battery-electric-vehicle-assembly-line-in-) | Unresolved | | 6 Aug 2026 | Japan | [Japan will see at least three cross-industry mergers explicitly invoke "supply-chain resilience" or decarbonisation grounds for antitrust clearance within 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/22/japan-will-see-at-least-three-cross-industry-mergers-explicitly-invoke-supply-ch) | Unresolved | | 6 Aug 2026 | South Korea | [A major South Korean steel, shipbuilding or automotive group will sign a binding technology-purchase commitment with SME robotics or AI-component suppliers by November 2026.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/21/a-major-south-korean-steel-shipbuilding-or-automotive-group-will-sign-a-binding-) | Unresolved | | 6 Aug 2026 | China, Japan | [A major Japanese printer or copier maker (Canon, Ricoh, Fujifilm or Konica Minolta) will announce a China-specific firmware localisation partnership with a Chinese software developer within six months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/20/a-major-japanese-printer-or-copier-maker-canon-ricoh-fujifilm-or-konica-minolta-) | Unresolved | | 5 Aug 2026 | India | [A major Apple supplier such as Foxconn or Tata Electronics will announce a new India capex commitment above USD 500 million within the next two quarters.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/15/a-major-apple-supplier-such-as-foxconn-or-tata-electronics-will-announce-a-new-i) | Unresolved | | 5 Aug 2026 | Indonesia | [Indonesia will fail to disburse even half of its newly announced electric motorcycle subsidy quota within six months of launch.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/14/indonesia-will-fail-to-disburse-even-half-of-its-newly-announced-electric-motorc) | Unresolved | | 5 Aug 2026 | Japan | [Tokyo will sign a new preliminary agreement or letter of intent on lethal-equipment export with the Philippines or Vietnam before February 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/13/tokyo-will-sign-a-new-preliminary-agreement-or-letter-of-intent-on-lethal-equipm) | Unresolved | | 4 Aug 2026 | China | [China's cumulative new-type energy storage capacity will surpass 200 GW by the end of 2026, a year ahead of industry forecasts.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/12/china-s-cumulative-new-type-energy-storage-capacity-will-surpass-200-gw-by-the-e) | Unresolved | | 4 Aug 2026 | Japan | [USD/JPY will retest the 160 handle within four weeks unless the Bank of Japan commits to a September rate hike.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/11/usd-jpy-will-retest-the-160-handle-within-four-weeks-unless-the-bank-of-japan-co) | True | | 4 Aug 2026 | South Korea | [At least three of Korea's top five cross-shareholding-restricted conglomerate groups will raise 2026 dividend payouts by more than 10% above their 2024-2025 average.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/10/at-least-three-of-korea-s-top-five-cross-shareholding-restricted-conglomerate-gr) | Unresolved | | 3 Aug 2026 | Indonesia | [At least one major private Indonesian property developer will report a credit-rating downgrade or bond-covenant stress within two quarters.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/9/at-least-one-major-private-indonesian-property-developer-will-report-a-credit-ra) | Unresolved | | 3 Aug 2026 | China | [China's cumulative cross-border RMB settlement volume tied to export loans will rise by at least 15% year-on-year in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/8/china-s-cumulative-cross-border-rmb-settlement-volume-tied-to-export-loans-will-) | Unresolved | | 3 Aug 2026 | Japan | [Japan's nuclear share of electricity generation will fall short of the government's 20% FY2040 target, landing between 13-16% instead.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/7/japan-s-nuclear-share-of-electricity-generation-will-fall-short-of-the-governmen) | Unresolved | | 31 Jul 2026 | Indonesia | [At least one of Indonesia's six registered BEV importers will request a delay or penalty renegotiation on its 60% local-content deadline before the end of 2026.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/6/at-least-one-of-indonesia-s-six-registered-bev-importers-will-request-a-delay-or) | Unresolved | | 31 Jul 2026 | South Korea | [Seoul will sign at least one binding long-term lithium or copper supply agreement with a Chilean producer within six months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/5/seoul-will-sign-at-least-one-binding-long-term-lithium-or-copper-supply-agreemen) | Unresolved | | 31 Jul 2026 | China | [China's PBOC will cut a key policy rate by 10 basis points before the end of September 2026.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/4/china-s-pboc-will-cut-a-key-policy-rate-by-10-basis-points-before-the-end-of-sep) | False | | 31 Jul 2026 | Indonesia | [CPTPP members will formally establish an Accession Working Group for Indonesia by mid-2027, but Jakarta's stated target of full membership by 2027 will slip into 2028.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/3/cptpp-members-will-formally-establish-an-accession-working-group-for-indonesia-b) | Unresolved | | 31 Jul 2026 | South Korea | [South Korea will sign its first concrete AI data-centre "package export" agreement with a UAE entity within 12 months.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/2/south-korea-will-sign-its-first-concrete-ai-data-centre-package-export-agreement) | Unresolved | | 31 Jul 2026 | China | [China will bring at least one of chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation or paper manufacturing into mandatory emissions trading system (ETS) compliance by end-2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/1/china-will-bring-at-least-one-of-chemicals-petrochemicals-civil-aviation-or-pape) | Unresolved |