--- title: "China's below-cost dumping crackdown will hit solar and steel export volumes within six months, not domestic prices." description: "The new SAMR-NDRC cost-accounting rules, part of the \"1+1+N\" anti-involution framework, target sub-scale producers rather than genuine overcapacity, so Beijing will prioritise squeezing marginal expor" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/100/china-s-below-cost-dumping-crackdown-will-hit-solar-and-steel-export-volumes-wit" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/100/china-s-below-cost-dumping-crackdown-will-hit-solar-and-steel-export-volumes-wit.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # China's below-cost dumping crackdown will hit solar and steel export volumes within six months, not domestic prices. - **Made:** 11 Sep 2026 - **By:** Marco Law - **Market:** China - **Outcome:** Unresolved The new SAMR-NDRC cost-accounting rules, part of the "1+1+N" anti-involution framework, target sub-scale producers rather than genuine overcapacity, so Beijing will prioritise squeezing marginal exporters out first. Expect Chinese solar module and steel export volumes to Southeast Asia to fall noticeably before domestic factory-gate prices meaningfully recover, since local governments still resist output cuts that cost jobs. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=China's%20below-cost%20dumping%20crackdown%20will%20hit%20solar%20and%20steel%20export%20volumes%20within%20six%20months%2C%20not%20domestic%20prices.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20China's%20below-cost%20dumping%20crackdown%20will%20hit%20solar%20and%20steel%20export%20volumes%20within%20six%20months%2C%20not%20domestic%20prices.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20China's%20below-cost%20dumping%20crackdown%20will%20hit%20solar%20and%20steel%20export%20volumes%20within%20six%20months%2C%20not%20domestic%20prices.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20China's%20below-cost%20dumping%20crackdown%20will%20hit%20solar%20and%20steel%20export%20volumes%20within%20six%20months%2C%20not%20domestic%20prices.) ## More from China 37 predictions on China so far, newest first. - 9 Nov 2026 · [Costly winter gas purchases will push CPC’s accumulated losses to about NT$127.6 billion by the end of 2026](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/209/costly-winter-gas-purchases-will-push-cpc-s-accumulated-losses-to-about-nt-127-6) · Unresolved - 6 Nov 2026 · [Nvidia is likely to win additional computing orders by the end of 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/208/nvidia-is-likely-to-win-additional-computing-orders-by-the-end-of-2027) · Unresolved - 5 Nov 2026 · [China’s IPO restrictions will redirect billions of yuan towards private financing.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/205/china-s-ipo-restrictions-will-redirect-billions-of-yuan-towards-private-financin) · Unresolved [All 37 from China](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=china) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)