--- title: "Indonesia will import well under half of the pledged 150 million barrels of Russian crude by year end, likely below 60 million." description: "Shipping trackers show almost no tankers have moved since Jakarta struck the April deal, and refinery outages at Rosneft's Ryazan and Novokuybyshevsk plants are delaying loadings by weeks. This week's" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/102/indonesia-will-import-well-under-half-of-the-pledged-150-million-barrels-of-russ" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/102/indonesia-will-import-well-under-half-of-the-pledged-150-million-barrels-of-russ.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Indonesia will import well under half of the pledged 150 million barrels of Russian crude by year end, likely below 60 million. - **Made:** 14 Sep 2026 - **By:** Marco Law - **Market:** Indonesia - **Outcome:** Unresolved Shipping trackers show almost no tankers have moved since Jakarta struck the April deal, and refinery outages at Rosneft's Ryazan and Novokuybyshevsk plants are delaying loadings by weeks. This week's formalisation reflects political commitment rather than logistical readiness, so headline pledges will keep outpacing actual deliveries. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Indonesia%20will%20import%20well%20under%20half%20of%20the%20pledged%20150%20million%20barrels%20of%20Russian%20crude%20by%20year%20end%2C%20likely%20below%2060%20million.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20Indonesia%20will%20import%20well%20under%20half%20of%20the%20pledged%20150%20million%20barrels%20of%20Russian%20crude%20by%20year%20end%2C%20likely%20below%2060%20million.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20Indonesia%20will%20import%20well%20under%20half%20of%20the%20pledged%20150%20million%20barrels%20of%20Russian%20crude%20by%20year%20end%2C%20likely%20below%2060%20million.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20Indonesia%20will%20import%20well%20under%20half%20of%20the%20pledged%20150%20million%20barrels%20of%20Russian%20crude%20by%20year%20end%2C%20likely%20below%2060%20million.) ## More from Indonesia 29 predictions on Indonesia so far, newest first. - 3 Nov 2026 · [ANTAM’s nickel operating profit will reach at least Rp15 trillion (US$830 million) in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/200/antam-s-nickel-operating-profit-will-reach-at-least-rp15-trillion-us-830-million) · Unresolved - 28 Oct 2026 · [Jakarta’s reform plan is unlikely to reverse MSCI to move Indonesia to Standalone Market status by 30 June 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/191/jakarta-s-reform-plan-is-unlikely-to-reverse-msci-to-move-indonesia-to-standalon) · Unresolved - 20 Oct 2026 · [MSCI will confirm Indonesia’s downgrade from Emerging Market to Standalone Market status by 30 June 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/173/msci-will-confirm-indonesia-s-downgrade-from-emerging-market-to-standalone-marke) · Unresolved [All 29 from Indonesia](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=indonesia) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)