--- title: "Trump will not impose the new 100% Russian oil tariff on India before mid-2027, even if the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act becomes law with India named as a top buyer." description: "The bill leaves the tariff to presidential discretion, Trump has already reversed course once lifting a 25% punitive tariff on India in February 2026 as trade talks progressed. With the Bilateral Trad" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/109/trump-will-not-impose-the-new-100-russian-oil-tariff-on-india-before-mid-2027-ev" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/109/trump-will-not-impose-the-new-100-russian-oil-tariff-on-india-before-mid-2027-ev.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Trump will not impose the new 100% Russian oil tariff on India before mid-2027, even if the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act becomes law with India named as a top buyer. - **Made:** 16 Sep 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** India - **Outcome:** Unresolved The bill leaves the tariff to presidential discretion, Trump has already reversed course once lifting a 25% punitive tariff on India in February 2026 as trade talks progressed. With the Bilateral Trade Agreement unsigned and Goyal still pushing for better terms, Washington will likely keep this as unexercised leverage over Delhi, not the imminent tariff many now assume. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Trump%20will%20not%20impose%20the%20new%20100%25%20Russian%20oil%20tariff%20on%20India%20before%20mid-2027%2C%20even%20if%20the%20Sanctioning%20Russia%20and%20Iran%20Act%20becomes%20law%20with%20India%20named%20as%20a%20top%20buyer.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20Trump%20will%20not%20impose%20the%20new%20100%25%20Russian%20oil%20tariff%20on%20India%20before%20mid-2027%2C%20even%20if%20the%20Sanctioning%20Russia%20and%20Iran%20Act%20becomes%20law%20with%20India%20named%20as%20a%20top%20buyer.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20Trump%20will%20not%20impose%20the%20new%20100%25%20Russian%20oil%20tariff%20on%20India%20before%20mid-2027%2C%20even%20if%20the%20Sanctioning%20Russia%20and%20Iran%20Act%20becomes%20law%20with%20India%20named%20as%20a%20top%20buyer.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20Trump%20will%20not%20impose%20the%20new%20100%25%20Russian%20oil%20tariff%20on%20India%20before%20mid-2027%2C%20even%20if%20the%20Sanctioning%20Russia%20and%20Iran%20Act%20becomes%20law%20with%20India%20named%20as%20a%20top%20buyer.) ## More from India 18 predictions on India so far, newest first. - 29 Oct 2026 · [Reliance Industries’ diesel export margins will come under pressure in 2027, putting roughly US$6 billion in annual gross profit at risk.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/195/reliance-industries-diesel-export-margins-will-come-under-pressure-in-2027-putti) · Unresolved - 15 Oct 2026 · [India will avoid new US tariffs under the Graham Act when President Trump makes his decision on 18 October.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/167/india-will-avoid-new-us-tariffs-under-the-graham-act-when-president-trump-makes-) · True - 14 Oct 2026 · [India’s state-owned power producer NTPC will fail to secure binding green ammonia or methanol export contracts by the end of 2027, forgoing US$120 million a year in export premiums.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/163/india-s-state-owned-power-producer-ntpc-will-fail-to-secure-binding-green-ammoni) · Unresolved [All 18 from India](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=india) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)