--- title: "Local Japanese banks will have a good Q3, but Japan’s AI boom will hit a financing hump." description: "The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to a 31-year high of 1.25%, citing AI-related investment as an inflation risk. Another rate increase to 1.5% expected by December. Record high rates are liftin" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/120/local-japanese-banks-will-have-a-good-q3-but-japan-s-ai-boom-will-hit-a-financin" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/120/local-japanese-banks-will-have-a-good-q3-but-japan-s-ai-boom-will-hit-a-financin.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Local Japanese banks will have a good Q3, but Japan’s AI boom will hit a financing hump. - **Made:** 23 Sep 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** Japan - **Outcome:** Unresolved The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to a 31-year high of 1.25%, citing AI-related investment as an inflation risk. Another rate increase to 1.5% expected by December. Record high rates are lifting lending margins at Mizuho, MUFG and SMFG. Japan’s push to attract AI investment is also raising financing costs for the foreign companies building that infrastructure, while shifting more of the gains from the investment boom towards domestic banks. SMFG looks to benefit the most with most of SMFG’s lending book concentrated in domestic loans — but Mizuho and MUFG also look to have a strong quarter, while TSMC and hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Amazon and Google building AI data centers in Japan face rising financing costs. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Local%20Japanese%20banks%20will%20have%20a%20good%20Q3%2C%20but%20Japan%E2%80%99s%20AI%20boom%20will%20hit%20a%20financing%20hump.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20Local%20Japanese%20banks%20will%20have%20a%20good%20Q3%2C%20but%20Japan%E2%80%99s%20AI%20boom%20will%20hit%20a%20financing%20hump.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20Local%20Japanese%20banks%20will%20have%20a%20good%20Q3%2C%20but%20Japan%E2%80%99s%20AI%20boom%20will%20hit%20a%20financing%20hump.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20Local%20Japanese%20banks%20will%20have%20a%20good%20Q3%2C%20but%20Japan%E2%80%99s%20AI%20boom%20will%20hit%20a%20financing%20hump.) ## More from Japan 36 predictions on Japan so far, newest first. - 10 Nov 2026 · [NVIDIA will win AI GPU orders for SoftBank’s Sarawak campus worth US$500 million.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/212/nvidia-will-win-ai-gpu-orders-for-softbank-s-sarawak-campus-worth-us-500-million) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [Japan’s government preferential debt for local banks will greatly aid its data centre boom.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/190/japan-s-government-preferential-debt-for-local-banks-will-greatly-aid-its-data-c) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [China’s government signals a coal buying push — Australian coal is a winner, while Japanese and South Korean power utilities are the likely losers.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/189/china-s-government-signals-a-coal-buying-push-australian-coal-is-a-winner-while-) · Unresolved [All 36 from Japan](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=japan) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)