--- title: "Expect Washington to escalate Russian-oil tariff threats against India after the midterms, with Reliance Industries the likely loser." description: "India’s trade deal with the EU, due to be signed on 16 December, will give its pharmaceutical and technology exporters access to EU markets while keeping agriculture off the table. But, those protecte" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/123/expect-washington-to-escalate-russian-oil-tariff-threats-against-india-after-the" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/123/expect-washington-to-escalate-russian-oil-tariff-threats-against-india-after-the.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Expect Washington to escalate Russian-oil tariff threats against India after the midterms, with Reliance Industries the likely loser. - **Made:** 24 Sep 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** India - **Outcome:** Unresolved India’s trade deal with the EU, due to be signed on 16 December, will give its pharmaceutical and technology exporters access to EU markets while keeping agriculture off the table. But, those protected sectors are precisely where US agriculture has been seeking greater access from a US–India trade deal. By giving Indian exporters another major market without agricultural concessions, the EU agreement reduces Washington’s leverage in its own trade negotiations with New Delhi. So, once the US midterms are over in November, the Trump administration is likely to turn to Russian-oil tariffs as its main pressure point. Reliance will be the likely target as India’s largest buyer of Rosneft crude — it accounts for more than 90% of India’s US-bound refined fuel exports. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Expect%20Washington%20to%20escalate%20Russian-oil%20tariff%20threats%20against%20India%20after%20the%20midterms%2C%20with%20Reliance%20Industries%20the%20likely%20loser.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20Expect%20Washington%20to%20escalate%20Russian-oil%20tariff%20threats%20against%20India%20after%20the%20midterms%2C%20with%20Reliance%20Industries%20the%20likely%20loser.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20Expect%20Washington%20to%20escalate%20Russian-oil%20tariff%20threats%20against%20India%20after%20the%20midterms%2C%20with%20Reliance%20Industries%20the%20likely%20loser.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20Expect%20Washington%20to%20escalate%20Russian-oil%20tariff%20threats%20against%20India%20after%20the%20midterms%2C%20with%20Reliance%20Industries%20the%20likely%20loser.) ## More from India 18 predictions on India so far, newest first. - 29 Oct 2026 · [Reliance Industries’ diesel export margins will come under pressure in 2027, putting roughly US$6 billion in annual gross profit at risk.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/195/reliance-industries-diesel-export-margins-will-come-under-pressure-in-2027-putti) · Unresolved - 15 Oct 2026 · [India will avoid new US tariffs under the Graham Act when President Trump makes his decision on 18 October.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/167/india-will-avoid-new-us-tariffs-under-the-graham-act-when-president-trump-makes-) · True - 14 Oct 2026 · [India’s state-owned power producer NTPC will fail to secure binding green ammonia or methanol export contracts by the end of 2027, forgoing US$120 million a year in export premiums.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/163/india-s-state-owned-power-producer-ntpc-will-fail-to-secure-binding-green-ammoni) · Unresolved [All 18 from India](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=india) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)