--- title: "Indonesian coal exporters stand to gain from India’s power crunch over the next two quarters, with Adani Power the likely loser." description: "India’s Power Ministry has ordered 112 captive coal plants to run at full capacity and sell surplus power from October to December as demand outstrips supply. The shortage is severe enough that Delhi " url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/128/indonesian-coal-exporters-stand-to-gain-from-india-s-power-crunch-over-the-next-" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/128/indonesian-coal-exporters-stand-to-gain-from-india-s-power-crunch-over-the-next-.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Indonesian coal exporters stand to gain from India’s power crunch over the next two quarters, with Adani Power the likely loser. - **Made:** 28 Sep 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** India - **Outcome:** Unresolved India’s Power Ministry has ordered 112 captive coal plants to run at full capacity and sell surplus power from October to December as demand outstrips supply. The shortage is severe enough that Delhi is considering mandatory coal imports, which would disproportionately benefit Indonesian exporters that already supply roughly 80% of India’s imported coal. Adaro Energy (Indonesia’s largest coal producer) will secure the windfalls from surging Indian orders. As captive plants dump additional power to the market, domestic power companies will face pressure from dropping prices. Adani Power is left most exposed, with its plants already running at just 62.8% of capacity last quarter, and limited long-term contracts leave its margins vulnerable to price declines. Delhi’s attempt to ease its power shortage will deepen reliance on Indonesian coal while hurting Indian generators exposed to falling wholesale prices. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Indonesian%20coal%20exporters%20stand%20to%20gain%20from%20India%E2%80%99s%20power%20crunch%20over%20the%20next%20two%20quarters%2C%20with%20Adani%20Power%20the%20likely%20loser.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20Indonesian%20coal%20exporters%20stand%20to%20gain%20from%20India%E2%80%99s%20power%20crunch%20over%20the%20next%20two%20quarters%2C%20with%20Adani%20Power%20the%20likely%20loser.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20Indonesian%20coal%20exporters%20stand%20to%20gain%20from%20India%E2%80%99s%20power%20crunch%20over%20the%20next%20two%20quarters%2C%20with%20Adani%20Power%20the%20likely%20loser.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20Indonesian%20coal%20exporters%20stand%20to%20gain%20from%20India%E2%80%99s%20power%20crunch%20over%20the%20next%20two%20quarters%2C%20with%20Adani%20Power%20the%20likely%20loser.) ## More from India 18 predictions on India so far, newest first. - 29 Oct 2026 · [Reliance Industries’ diesel export margins will come under pressure in 2027, putting roughly US$6 billion in annual gross profit at risk.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/195/reliance-industries-diesel-export-margins-will-come-under-pressure-in-2027-putti) · Unresolved - 15 Oct 2026 · [India will avoid new US tariffs under the Graham Act when President Trump makes his decision on 18 October.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/167/india-will-avoid-new-us-tariffs-under-the-graham-act-when-president-trump-makes-) · True - 14 Oct 2026 · [India’s state-owned power producer NTPC will fail to secure binding green ammonia or methanol export contracts by the end of 2027, forgoing US$120 million a year in export premiums.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/163/india-s-state-owned-power-producer-ntpc-will-fail-to-secure-binding-green-ammoni) · Unresolved [All 18 from India](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=india) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)