--- title: "Vietnam's US shipments of the toys, bedding and kitchenware on the 77-item US-China tariff-cut list will still be at least 50% above their 2024 level in the first half of 2027, with LEGO, Mattel and Hasbro among those keeping their Vietnamese output." description: "Although announced US-China tariff cuts can be seen as a reduction in incentives for multinationals to further relocate supply chains away from China, buyers are unlikely to immediately unwind supply " url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/135/vietnam-s-us-shipments-of-the-toys-bedding-and-kitchenware-on-the-77-item-us-chi" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/135/vietnam-s-us-shipments-of-the-toys-bedding-and-kitchenware-on-the-77-item-us-chi.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Vietnam's US shipments of the toys, bedding and kitchenware on the 77-item US-China tariff-cut list will still be at least 50% above their 2024 level in the first half of 2027, with LEGO, Mattel and Hasbro among those keeping their Vietnamese output. - **Made:** 29 Sep 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** China - **Outcome:** Unresolved Although announced US-China tariff cuts can be seen as a reduction in incentives for multinationals to further relocate supply chains away from China, buyers are unlikely to immediately unwind supply chains for a cut with no published rate or start date, and the wider US-China trade truce expires on 10 January 2027, leading to lingering uncertainty. Leaving is also costly, with LEGO having built its first Vietnam factory in Binh Duong, Mattel having used Vietnamese contract manufacturers since 2018, and the fact that moving moulds takes an estimated two production cycles. The clearest winners from the cut are China-reliant sellers such as Jakks Pacific, not brands already committed to Vietnam and will need more to return to China. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Vietnam's%20US%20shipments%20of%20the%20toys%2C%20bedding%20and%20kitchenware%20on%20the%2077-item%20US-China%20tariff-cut%20list%20will%20still%20be%20at%20least%2050%25%20above%20their%202024%20level%20in%20the%20first%20half%20of%202027%2C%20with%20LEGO%2C%20Mattel%20and%20Hasbro%20among%20those%20keeping%20their%20Vietnamese%20output.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20Vietnam's%20US%20shipments%20of%20the%20toys%2C%20bedding%20and%20kitchenware%20on%20the%2077-item%20US-China%20tariff-cut%20list%20will%20still%20be%20at%20least%2050%25%20above%20their%202024%20level%20in%20the%20first%20half%20of%202027%2C%20with%20LEGO%2C%20Mattel%20and%20Hasbro%20among%20those%20keeping%20their%20Vietnamese%20output.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20Vietnam's%20US%20shipments%20of%20the%20toys%2C%20bedding%20and%20kitchenware%20on%20the%2077-item%20US-China%20tariff-cut%20list%20will%20still%20be%20at%20least%2050%25%20above%20their%202024%20level%20in%20the%20first%20half%20of%202027%2C%20with%20LEGO%2C%20Mattel%20and%20Hasbro%20among%20those%20keeping%20their%20Vietnamese%20output.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20Vietnam's%20US%20shipments%20of%20the%20toys%2C%20bedding%20and%20kitchenware%20on%20the%2077-item%20US-China%20tariff-cut%20list%20will%20still%20be%20at%20least%2050%25%20above%20their%202024%20level%20in%20the%20first%20half%20of%202027%2C%20with%20LEGO%2C%20Mattel%20and%20Hasbro%20among%20those%20keeping%20their%20Vietnamese%20output.) ## More from China 37 predictions on China so far, newest first. - 9 Nov 2026 · [Costly winter gas purchases will push CPC’s accumulated losses to about NT$127.6 billion by the end of 2026](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/209/costly-winter-gas-purchases-will-push-cpc-s-accumulated-losses-to-about-nt-127-6) · Unresolved - 6 Nov 2026 · [Nvidia is likely to win additional computing orders by the end of 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/208/nvidia-is-likely-to-win-additional-computing-orders-by-the-end-of-2027) · Unresolved - 5 Nov 2026 · [China’s IPO restrictions will redirect billions of yuan towards private financing.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/205/china-s-ipo-restrictions-will-redirect-billions-of-yuan-towards-private-financin) · Unresolved [All 37 from China](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=china) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. 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