--- title: "The US share of Japan's crude imports will average below 25% across January to March 2027, down from 36% in July, even after Tokyo's planned oil security bills become law." description: "New bills under review by the Japanese government would subsidise crude cargoes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz and back overseas pipelines to reduce reliance on the strait. This will however not mai" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/137/the-us-share-of-japan-s-crude-imports-will-average-below-25-across-january-to-ma" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/137/the-us-share-of-japan-s-crude-imports-will-average-below-25-across-january-to-ma.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # The US share of Japan's crude imports will average below 25% across January to March 2027, down from 36% in July, even after Tokyo's planned oil security bills become law. - **Made:** 30 Sep 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** Japan - **Outcome:** Unresolved New bills under review by the Japanese government would subsidise crude cargoes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz and back overseas pipelines to reduce reliance on the strait. This will however not maintain the short term surge this year in American oil imports over Gulf oil, as Saudi barrels loaded on the Red Sea and Omani oil can qualify as easily as American ones for the subsidy. Gulf crude also better suit Japan's refineries, which are built for medium and heavy sour grades, not American light shale oil. American cargoes also take about 50 days and cost $26 to $28 a barrel in freight, and US imports have already been falling since spring. All this points to the proposed subsidies not meaningfully altering Japan's sources of crude oil. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=The%20US%20share%20of%20Japan's%20crude%20imports%20will%20average%20below%2025%25%20across%20January%20to%20March%202027%2C%20down%20from%2036%25%20in%20July%2C%20even%20after%20Tokyo's%20planned%20oil%20security%20bills%20become%20law.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20The%20US%20share%20of%20Japan's%20crude%20imports%20will%20average%20below%2025%25%20across%20January%20to%20March%202027%2C%20down%20from%2036%25%20in%20July%2C%20even%20after%20Tokyo's%20planned%20oil%20security%20bills%20become%20law.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20The%20US%20share%20of%20Japan's%20crude%20imports%20will%20average%20below%2025%25%20across%20January%20to%20March%202027%2C%20down%20from%2036%25%20in%20July%2C%20even%20after%20Tokyo's%20planned%20oil%20security%20bills%20become%20law.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20The%20US%20share%20of%20Japan's%20crude%20imports%20will%20average%20below%2025%25%20across%20January%20to%20March%202027%2C%20down%20from%2036%25%20in%20July%2C%20even%20after%20Tokyo's%20planned%20oil%20security%20bills%20become%20law.) ## More from Japan 36 predictions on Japan so far, newest first. - 10 Nov 2026 · [NVIDIA will win AI GPU orders for SoftBank’s Sarawak campus worth US$500 million.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/212/nvidia-will-win-ai-gpu-orders-for-softbank-s-sarawak-campus-worth-us-500-million) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [Japan’s government preferential debt for local banks will greatly aid its data centre boom.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/190/japan-s-government-preferential-debt-for-local-banks-will-greatly-aid-its-data-c) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [China’s government signals a coal buying push — Australian coal is a winner, while Japanese and South Korean power utilities are the likely losers.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/189/china-s-government-signals-a-coal-buying-push-australian-coal-is-a-winner-while-) · Unresolved [All 36 from Japan](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=japan) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)