--- title: "The share of China's science and technology small firms holding a bank loan will stay below 52% at the end of 2026, up less than 2 points from 50.2% in end-2025." description: "The People's Bank of China added 200 billion yuan ($30 billion) to its relending quota for technology innovation and equipment upgrades, and raised the share of each eligible loan it refinances from 6" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/139/the-share-of-china-s-science-and-technology-small-firms-holding-a-bank-loan-will" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/139/the-share-of-china-s-science-and-technology-small-firms-holding-a-bank-loan-will.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # The share of China's science and technology small firms holding a bank loan will stay below 52% at the end of 2026, up less than 2 points from 50.2% in end-2025. - **Made:** 30 Sep 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** China - **Outcome:** Unresolved The People's Bank of China added 200 billion yuan ($30 billion) to its relending quota for technology innovation and equipment upgrades, and raised the share of each eligible loan it refinances from 60% to 100%. That cuts banks' funding costs but not the default risk they carry on a start-up with no collateral. Growth in firms accessing credit has consistently lagged behind total credit volume, as lending to tech firms grew 20.1% in the second quarter while the share with a loan rose only 0.6 points to 50.8%. The easing measures will deepen credit among firms banks already serve but fail to reach new ones. Headline lending figures will look strong while early-stage firms stay reliant on venture capital and government guidance funds. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=The%20share%20of%20China's%20science%20and%20technology%20small%20firms%20holding%20a%20bank%20loan%20will%20stay%20below%2052%25%20at%20the%20end%20of%202026%2C%20up%20less%20than%202%20points%20from%2050.2%25%20in%20end-2025.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20The%20share%20of%20China's%20science%20and%20technology%20small%20firms%20holding%20a%20bank%20loan%20will%20stay%20below%2052%25%20at%20the%20end%20of%202026%2C%20up%20less%20than%202%20points%20from%2050.2%25%20in%20end-2025.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20The%20share%20of%20China's%20science%20and%20technology%20small%20firms%20holding%20a%20bank%20loan%20will%20stay%20below%2052%25%20at%20the%20end%20of%202026%2C%20up%20less%20than%202%20points%20from%2050.2%25%20in%20end-2025.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20The%20share%20of%20China's%20science%20and%20technology%20small%20firms%20holding%20a%20bank%20loan%20will%20stay%20below%2052%25%20at%20the%20end%20of%202026%2C%20up%20less%20than%202%20points%20from%2050.2%25%20in%20end-2025.) ## More from China 37 predictions on China so far, newest first. - 9 Nov 2026 · [Costly winter gas purchases will push CPC’s accumulated losses to about NT$127.6 billion by the end of 2026](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/209/costly-winter-gas-purchases-will-push-cpc-s-accumulated-losses-to-about-nt-127-6) · Unresolved - 6 Nov 2026 · [Nvidia is likely to win additional computing orders by the end of 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/208/nvidia-is-likely-to-win-additional-computing-orders-by-the-end-of-2027) · Unresolved - 5 Nov 2026 · [China’s IPO restrictions will redirect billions of yuan towards private financing.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/205/china-s-ipo-restrictions-will-redirect-billions-of-yuan-towards-private-financin) · Unresolved [All 37 from China](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=china) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)