--- title: "The United States and India will not sign their bilateral trade agreement before 31 January 2027." description: "US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says talks are in the \"short strokes\" but signing is \"not imminent\". India's finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on 5 October that talks have hit a \"plateau" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/145/the-united-states-and-india-will-not-sign-their-bilateral-trade-agreement-before" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/145/the-united-states-and-india-will-not-sign-their-bilateral-trade-agreement-before.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # The United States and India will not sign their bilateral trade agreement before 31 January 2027. - **Made:** 5 Oct 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** India - **Outcome:** Unresolved US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says talks are in the "short strokes" but signing is "not imminent". India's finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on 5 October that talks have hit a "plateau", eight months after a February framework. Two unresolved concerns are holding up the deal: the findings of a separate Section 301 overcapacity investigation that names India, due within weeks and to be followed by proposed duties and hearings over several months, and whether India would be impacted by a new US law letting Donald Trump tariff buyers of Russian energy by up to 100%. Delhi wants a clause shielding its tariff edge from later changes, so it has little reason to sign before these are clear. Meanwhile, US buyers are already avoiding bulk Indian orders, leaving textile, leather and footwear exporters on thin margins under a 10% duty while rivals such as Bangladesh await planned quota relief. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=The%20United%20States%20and%20India%20will%20not%20sign%20their%20bilateral%20trade%20agreement%20before%2031%20January%202027.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20The%20United%20States%20and%20India%20will%20not%20sign%20their%20bilateral%20trade%20agreement%20before%2031%20January%202027.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20The%20United%20States%20and%20India%20will%20not%20sign%20their%20bilateral%20trade%20agreement%20before%2031%20January%202027.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20The%20United%20States%20and%20India%20will%20not%20sign%20their%20bilateral%20trade%20agreement%20before%2031%20January%202027.) ## More from India 18 predictions on India so far, newest first. - 29 Oct 2026 · [Reliance Industries’ diesel export margins will come under pressure in 2027, putting roughly US$6 billion in annual gross profit at risk.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/195/reliance-industries-diesel-export-margins-will-come-under-pressure-in-2027-putti) · Unresolved - 15 Oct 2026 · [India will avoid new US tariffs under the Graham Act when President Trump makes his decision on 18 October.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/167/india-will-avoid-new-us-tariffs-under-the-graham-act-when-president-trump-makes-) · True - 14 Oct 2026 · [India’s state-owned power producer NTPC will fail to secure binding green ammonia or methanol export contracts by the end of 2027, forgoing US$120 million a year in export premiums.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/163/india-s-state-owned-power-producer-ntpc-will-fail-to-secure-binding-green-ammoni) · Unresolved [All 18 from India](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=india) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)