--- title: "Iluka Resources will sign a binding multi-year dysprosium and terbium supply agreement with a Japanese buyer within 12 months." description: "Japan and Australia signed a finance ministers’ memorandum on 5 October 2026 aimed at expanding government-backed investment and offtake in critical minerals. The push comes as China has halted dyspro" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/148/iluka-resources-will-sign-a-binding-multi-year-dysprosium-and-terbium-supply-agr" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/148/iluka-resources-will-sign-a-binding-multi-year-dysprosium-and-terbium-supply-agr.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Iluka Resources will sign a binding multi-year dysprosium and terbium supply agreement with a Japanese buyer within 12 months. - **Made:** 6 Oct 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** Japan - **Outcome:** Unresolved Japan and Australia signed a finance ministers’ memorandum on 5 October 2026 aimed at expanding government-backed investment and offtake in critical minerals. The push comes as China has halted dysprosium and terbium oxide shipments to Japan since November 2025 – tightening supplies for Japanese industries, particularly automakers. Iluka’s Eneabba refinery, due to open in 2027, is set to become Australia’s largest producer of the two oxides, with capacity for 750 tonnes a year. Japan responded similarly after China’s 2010 rare-earth embargo – financing overseas mines and refineries from 2011 to secure alternative supply. A Japanese offtake deal will give Iluka an early cash boost while locking in demand for a large share of its new production. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Iluka%20Resources%20will%20sign%20a%20binding%20multi-year%20dysprosium%20and%20terbium%20supply%20agreement%20with%20a%20Japanese%20buyer%20within%2012%20months.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20Iluka%20Resources%20will%20sign%20a%20binding%20multi-year%20dysprosium%20and%20terbium%20supply%20agreement%20with%20a%20Japanese%20buyer%20within%2012%20months.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20Iluka%20Resources%20will%20sign%20a%20binding%20multi-year%20dysprosium%20and%20terbium%20supply%20agreement%20with%20a%20Japanese%20buyer%20within%2012%20months.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20Iluka%20Resources%20will%20sign%20a%20binding%20multi-year%20dysprosium%20and%20terbium%20supply%20agreement%20with%20a%20Japanese%20buyer%20within%2012%20months.) ## More from Japan 36 predictions on Japan so far, newest first. - 10 Nov 2026 · [NVIDIA will win AI GPU orders for SoftBank’s Sarawak campus worth US$500 million.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/212/nvidia-will-win-ai-gpu-orders-for-softbank-s-sarawak-campus-worth-us-500-million) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [Japan’s government preferential debt for local banks will greatly aid its data centre boom.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/190/japan-s-government-preferential-debt-for-local-banks-will-greatly-aid-its-data-c) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [China’s government signals a coal buying push — Australian coal is a winner, while Japanese and South Korean power utilities are the likely losers.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/189/china-s-government-signals-a-coal-buying-push-australian-coal-is-a-winner-while-) · Unresolved [All 36 from Japan](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=japan) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)