--- title: "South Korea's S-Oil will earn less per barrel from refining than Japan’s ENEOS in the first quarter of 2027." description: "On 5 October, Tokyo said it would expand its reinsurance scheme so the government can directly insure tankers carrying crude oil and LNG when private insurers pull back from high-risk routes. That wil" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/149/south-korea-s-s-oil-will-earn-less-per-barrel-from-refining-than-japan-s-eneos-i" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/149/south-korea-s-s-oil-will-earn-less-per-barrel-from-refining-than-japan-s-eneos-i.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # South Korea's S-Oil will earn less per barrel from refining than Japan’s ENEOS in the first quarter of 2027. - **Made:** 6 Oct 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** Japan, South Korea - **Outcome:** Unresolved On 5 October, Tokyo said it would expand its reinsurance scheme so the government can directly insure tankers carrying crude oil and LNG when private insurers pull back from high-risk routes. That will make Middle Eastern cargoes cheaper for ENEOS and Idemitsu to secure – particularly as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz becomes more expensive for other Asian buyers. S-Oil is especially exposed. Most of its crude comes from Saudi Aramco, its largest shareholder, and passes through the Strait of Hormuz, where insurance now costs 3% to 5% of a ship’s value. South Korea’s state scheme covers only 10 small vessels, while Japanese refiners will have government backing for their cargoes. S-Oil will face higher shipping costs and therefore weaker margins compared to their Japanese counterparts. Asia’s fuel buyers will increasingly split between those with state-backed insurance and those without – putting pressure on Seoul to extend similar cover to large tankers. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=South%20Korea's%20S-Oil%20will%20earn%20less%20per%20barrel%20from%20refining%20than%20Japan%E2%80%99s%20ENEOS%20in%20the%20first%20quarter%20of%202027.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20South%20Korea's%20S-Oil%20will%20earn%20less%20per%20barrel%20from%20refining%20than%20Japan%E2%80%99s%20ENEOS%20in%20the%20first%20quarter%20of%202027.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20South%20Korea's%20S-Oil%20will%20earn%20less%20per%20barrel%20from%20refining%20than%20Japan%E2%80%99s%20ENEOS%20in%20the%20first%20quarter%20of%202027.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20South%20Korea's%20S-Oil%20will%20earn%20less%20per%20barrel%20from%20refining%20than%20Japan%E2%80%99s%20ENEOS%20in%20the%20first%20quarter%20of%202027.) ## More from Japan 36 predictions on Japan so far, newest first. - 10 Nov 2026 · [NVIDIA will win AI GPU orders for SoftBank’s Sarawak campus worth US$500 million.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/212/nvidia-will-win-ai-gpu-orders-for-softbank-s-sarawak-campus-worth-us-500-million) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [Japan’s government preferential debt for local banks will greatly aid its data centre boom.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/190/japan-s-government-preferential-debt-for-local-banks-will-greatly-aid-its-data-c) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [China’s government signals a coal buying push — Australian coal is a winner, while Japanese and South Korean power utilities are the likely losers.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/189/china-s-government-signals-a-coal-buying-push-australian-coal-is-a-winner-while-) · Unresolved [All 36 from Japan](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=japan) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)