--- title: "Insmed's Brinsupri will reach annual Japanese sales of more than twice its peak forecast within 18 months of listing, exposing Insmed to a ¥9.8 billion price cut." description: "On 7 October Japan's reimbursement council priced Brinsupri at ¥24,696 a tablet, or about ¥9 million a patient a year. Japan cuts prices by 10 to 25 percent when a cost-based drug sells at twice its f" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/155/insmed-s-brinsupri-will-reach-annual-japanese-sales-of-more-than-twice-its-peak-" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/155/insmed-s-brinsupri-will-reach-annual-japanese-sales-of-more-than-twice-its-peak-.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Insmed's Brinsupri will reach annual Japanese sales of more than twice its peak forecast within 18 months of listing, exposing Insmed to a ¥9.8 billion price cut. - **Made:** 8 Oct 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** Japan - **Outcome:** Unresolved On 7 October Japan's reimbursement council priced Brinsupri at ¥24,696 a tablet, or about ¥9 million a patient a year. Japan cuts prices by 10 to 25 percent when a cost-based drug sells at twice its forecast. Insmed is at risk because the forecast implies only about 5,400 patients against roughly 800,000 diagnosed cases cited in its own materials. Japan cut Gilead's two hepatitis C drugs by 31.7 percent within a year of their 2015 listing after they beat forecasts. Insmed will surrender part of its windfall to Japan's national insurance budget. A 10–25% price cut will force Insmed to treat roughly 11–33% more Japanese patients just to maintain the same revenue run-rate – turning Brinsupri’s early success into a volume race. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Insmed's%20Brinsupri%20will%20reach%20annual%20Japanese%20sales%20of%20more%20than%20twice%20its%20peak%20forecast%20within%2018%20months%20of%20listing%2C%20exposing%20Insmed%20to%20a%20%C2%A59.8%20billion%20price%20cut.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20Insmed's%20Brinsupri%20will%20reach%20annual%20Japanese%20sales%20of%20more%20than%20twice%20its%20peak%20forecast%20within%2018%20months%20of%20listing%2C%20exposing%20Insmed%20to%20a%20%C2%A59.8%20billion%20price%20cut.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20Insmed's%20Brinsupri%20will%20reach%20annual%20Japanese%20sales%20of%20more%20than%20twice%20its%20peak%20forecast%20within%2018%20months%20of%20listing%2C%20exposing%20Insmed%20to%20a%20%C2%A59.8%20billion%20price%20cut.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20Insmed's%20Brinsupri%20will%20reach%20annual%20Japanese%20sales%20of%20more%20than%20twice%20its%20peak%20forecast%20within%2018%20months%20of%20listing%2C%20exposing%20Insmed%20to%20a%20%C2%A59.8%20billion%20price%20cut.) ## More from Japan 36 predictions on Japan so far, newest first. - 10 Nov 2026 · [NVIDIA will win AI GPU orders for SoftBank’s Sarawak campus worth US$500 million.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/212/nvidia-will-win-ai-gpu-orders-for-softbank-s-sarawak-campus-worth-us-500-million) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [Japan’s government preferential debt for local banks will greatly aid its data centre boom.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/190/japan-s-government-preferential-debt-for-local-banks-will-greatly-aid-its-data-c) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [China’s government signals a coal buying push — Australian coal is a winner, while Japanese and South Korean power utilities are the likely losers.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/189/china-s-government-signals-a-coal-buying-push-australian-coal-is-a-winner-while-) · Unresolved [All 36 from Japan](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=japan) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)