--- title: "India will avoid new US tariffs under the Graham Act when President Trump makes his decision on 18 October." description: "Signed on 18 September, the Graham Act allows President Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian oil. A decision is due on 18 October, while Secretary of " url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/167/india-will-avoid-new-us-tariffs-under-the-graham-act-when-president-trump-makes-" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/167/india-will-avoid-new-us-tariffs-under-the-graham-act-when-president-trump-makes-.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # India will avoid new US tariffs under the Graham Act when President Trump makes his decision on 18 October. - **Made:** 15 Oct 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** India - **Outcome:** True **True** · Judged 13 November 2026 President Trump signed an executive order on 16 October, two days before the 18 October trigger date, waiving the tariffs and sanctions the Graham Act would have started to apply. The act set a 100% duty on the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas that made new purchases from 18 October, and India was one of those buyers. The waiver runs until the White House decides further action is appropriate, so India has no new tariff under the act. Signed on 18 September, the Graham Act allows President Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian oil. A decision is due on 18 October, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to visit Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery between 17 and 22 October. The Act also lets the President waive the tariff for national interest. So the visit turns the tariff into a bargaining chip that India can trade for oil and investment pledges. Reliance is best placed to benefit. It exported 929,000 barrels a day of refined fuel in September, accounting for over 70% of India’s total, and has agreed in principle to buy products from a planned US$3 billion refinery in Brownsville, Texas. Washington has offered similar relief before, removing a 25% duty on India in February after New Delhi pledged to stop buying Russian oil. Reliance will retain their premium-priced diesel sales to Western markets, but must now deliver on its Brownsville commitment. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=India%20will%20avoid%20new%20US%20tariffs%20under%20the%20Graham%20Act%20when%20President%20Trump%20makes%20his%20decision%20on%2018%20October.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20India%20will%20avoid%20new%20US%20tariffs%20under%20the%20Graham%20Act%20when%20President%20Trump%20makes%20his%20decision%20on%2018%20October.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20India%20will%20avoid%20new%20US%20tariffs%20under%20the%20Graham%20Act%20when%20President%20Trump%20makes%20his%20decision%20on%2018%20October.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20India%20will%20avoid%20new%20US%20tariffs%20under%20the%20Graham%20Act%20when%20President%20Trump%20makes%20his%20decision%20on%2018%20October.) ## More from India 18 predictions on India so far, newest first. - 29 Oct 2026 · [Reliance Industries’ diesel export margins will come under pressure in 2027, putting roughly US$6 billion in annual gross profit at risk.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/195/reliance-industries-diesel-export-margins-will-come-under-pressure-in-2027-putti) · Unresolved - 14 Oct 2026 · [India’s state-owned power producer NTPC will fail to secure binding green ammonia or methanol export contracts by the end of 2027, forgoing US$120 million a year in export premiums.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/163/india-s-state-owned-power-producer-ntpc-will-fail-to-secure-binding-green-ammoni) · Unresolved - 12 Oct 2026 · [Natco Pharma’s cancer-drug sales in India will fall 20% by March 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/161/natco-pharma-s-cancer-drug-sales-in-india-will-fall-20-by-march-2027) · Unresolved [All 18 from India](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=india) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)