--- title: "By March 2027, TSMC will announce a Texas chip factory for Elon Musk’s companies, capturing US$3–3.6 billion in chip revenues away from intel." description: "On 15 October, TSMC’s chief executive insisted that the company must operate any factory it joins. Musk, however, wants his companies to run Terafab, with TSMC only leasing space. With neither side wi" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/169/by-march-2027-tsmc-will-announce-a-texas-chip-factory-for-elon-musk-s-companies-" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/169/by-march-2027-tsmc-will-announce-a-texas-chip-factory-for-elon-musk-s-companies-.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # By March 2027, TSMC will announce a Texas chip factory for Elon Musk’s companies, capturing US$3–3.6 billion in chip revenues away from intel. - **Made:** 16 Oct 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** Taiwan - **Outcome:** Unresolved On 15 October, TSMC’s chief executive insisted that the company must operate any factory it joins. Musk, however, wants his companies to run Terafab, with TSMC only leasing space. With neither side willing to give up control, TSMC is more likely to build its own factory nearby and supply Musk directly. This follows its approach in Japan, where TSMC has an operating stake despite backing from Sony, Denso and Toyota. TSMC has also committed US$265 billion to US manufacturing, signalling its ambition to establish a production foothold in the US. The potential revenue is substantial. At reported prices of US$25,000-30,000 per wafer with a prospective initial demand reaching 10,000 wafers per month. Intel stands to lose the most. Terafab is one of its highest-profile potential customers for its next-generation 14A process, but SpaceX describes the project as non-binding. Intel’s foundry business lost US$2.1 billion last quarter, and the company will not expand 14A production without firm orders. If Musk chooses TSMC, which already supplies his other companies, Intel’s ambition to become a leading US chip foundry could suffer a major setback. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=By%20March%202027%2C%20TSMC%20will%20announce%20a%20Texas%20chip%20factory%20for%20Elon%20Musk%E2%80%99s%20companies%2C%20capturing%20US%243%E2%80%933.6%20billion%20in%20chip%20revenues%20away%20from%20intel.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20By%20March%202027%2C%20TSMC%20will%20announce%20a%20Texas%20chip%20factory%20for%20Elon%20Musk%E2%80%99s%20companies%2C%20capturing%20US%243%E2%80%933.6%20billion%20in%20chip%20revenues%20away%20from%20intel.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20By%20March%202027%2C%20TSMC%20will%20announce%20a%20Texas%20chip%20factory%20for%20Elon%20Musk%E2%80%99s%20companies%2C%20capturing%20US%243%E2%80%933.6%20billion%20in%20chip%20revenues%20away%20from%20intel.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20By%20March%202027%2C%20TSMC%20will%20announce%20a%20Texas%20chip%20factory%20for%20Elon%20Musk%E2%80%99s%20companies%2C%20capturing%20US%243%E2%80%933.6%20billion%20in%20chip%20revenues%20away%20from%20intel.) ## More from Taiwan 14 predictions on Taiwan so far, newest first. - 12 Nov 2026 · [Samsung Electro-Mechanics would capture a larger share of US AI-chip substrate orders in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/213/samsung-electro-mechanics-would-capture-a-larger-share-of-us-ai-chip-substrate-o) · Unresolved - 10 Nov 2026 · [Taiwanese tungsten exporters will face squeezed margins in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/211/taiwanese-tungsten-exporters-will-face-squeezed-margins-in-2027) · Unresolved - 9 Nov 2026 · [Nvidia will place additional AI memory orders with SK hynix or Samsung by the end of 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/210/nvidia-will-place-additional-ai-memory-orders-with-sk-hynix-or-samsung-by-the-en) · Unresolved [All 14 from Taiwan](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=taiwan) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)