--- title: "SK hynix will lose NAND wafer orders costing $1.5–3.5 billion in foregone 2027 revenues." description: "On 15 October, Solidigm (SK hynix’s flash memory unit) was seeking US approval for more American chipmaking equipment at their Dalian plant. SK hynix says the equipment has already been approved, but " url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/171/sk-hynix-will-lose-nand-wafer-orders-costing-1-5-3-5-billion-in-foregone-2027-re" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/171/sk-hynix-will-lose-nand-wafer-orders-costing-1-5-3-5-billion-in-foregone-2027-re.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # SK hynix will lose NAND wafer orders costing $1.5–3.5 billion in foregone 2027 revenues. - **Made:** 16 Oct 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** South Korea - **Outcome:** Unresolved On 15 October, Solidigm (SK hynix’s flash memory unit) was seeking US approval for more American chipmaking equipment at their Dalian plant. SK hynix says the equipment has already been approved, but Washington ended licence-free imports in 2025 and now issues limited one-year licences for existing production lines. Its current licence expires on 31 December, with no approval yet for 2027. Dalian already produces 30–40% of SK hynix’s NAND memory, and the new factory would add 50,000 wafers a month to its existing capacity of 100,000. Solidigm earned ₩12.25 trillion (US$8.3 billion) in revenue in the first half of 2026, and with NAND prices expected to rise 15–20% in the fourth quarter, production delays will cost it valuable sales. Meanwhile, Chinese memory producer YMTC’s NAND production is expected to grow 24% in 2027. Already the world’s third-largest NAND supplier, with a 14% share of shipments, YMTC relies on Chinese-made equipment facing no production hurdles. It is well placed to capture AI data-centre storage orders that Solidigm cannot fulfil. US restrictions on chipmaking equipment could therefore backfire, helping Chinese chipmakers capture more market share. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=SK%20hynix%20will%20lose%20NAND%20wafer%20orders%20costing%20%241.5%E2%80%933.5%20billion%20in%20foregone%202027%20revenues.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20SK%20hynix%20will%20lose%20NAND%20wafer%20orders%20costing%20%241.5%E2%80%933.5%20billion%20in%20foregone%202027%20revenues.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20SK%20hynix%20will%20lose%20NAND%20wafer%20orders%20costing%20%241.5%E2%80%933.5%20billion%20in%20foregone%202027%20revenues.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20SK%20hynix%20will%20lose%20NAND%20wafer%20orders%20costing%20%241.5%E2%80%933.5%20billion%20in%20foregone%202027%20revenues.) ## More from South Korea 27 predictions on South Korea so far, newest first. - 4 Nov 2026 · [Rhythm Pharmaceuticals is likely to exceed US$750 million in rare-obesity drug sales in 2027, more than double the annual sales pace implied by its third-quarter 2026 results.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/203/rhythm-pharmaceuticals-is-likely-to-exceed-us-750-million-in-rare-obesity-drug-s) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [Washington’s South Korean advanced memory chipmaker anti-China restrictions will hit Samsung much harder than Beijing.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/188/washington-s-south-korean-advanced-memory-chipmaker-anti-china-restrictions-will) · Unresolved - 26 Oct 2026 · [South Korea’s steel market pushes back on China yet harder.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/187/south-korea-s-steel-market-pushes-back-on-china-yet-harder) · Unresolved [All 27 from South Korea](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=south-korea) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)