--- title: "Japanese electronic components manufacturer Ibiden’s estimated 70–80% share of the high-end AI server substrate market will fall below 70% by early 2028." description: "On 21 October, Nvidia signed a multi-year supply agreement with Samsung Electro-Mechanics and reserved additional capacity with Taiwan’s Unimicron, reducing its reliance on Ibiden. Samsung can already" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/181/japanese-electronic-components-manufacturer-ibiden-s-estimated-70-80-share-of-th" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/181/japanese-electronic-components-manufacturer-ibiden-s-estimated-70-80-share-of-th.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Japanese electronic components manufacturer Ibiden’s estimated 70–80% share of the high-end AI server substrate market will fall below 70% by early 2028. - **Made:** 22 Oct 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** Japan - **Outcome:** Unresolved On 21 October, Nvidia signed a multi-year supply agreement with Samsung Electro-Mechanics and reserved additional capacity with Taiwan’s Unimicron, reducing its reliance on Ibiden. Samsung can already supply Nvidia, while Unimicron will add capacity from the second quarter of 2027. By contrast, Ibiden’s new Ono plant will only begin increasing production in early 2028. This gives its rivals a head start in securing Nvidia’s growing orders, weakening Ibiden’s market share and pricing power. The risk is significant for Ibiden, whose electronics business generated ¥45.2 billion of its ¥62 billion operating profit in the year to March 2026. Ibiden now faces greater uncertainty over its planned ¥500 billion investment through fiscal 2028, as its largest customer gains alternative suppliers. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Japanese%20electronic%20components%20manufacturer%20Ibiden%E2%80%99s%20estimated%2070%E2%80%9380%25%20share%20of%20the%20high-end%20AI%20server%20substrate%20market%20will%20fall%20below%2070%25%20by%20early%202028.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20Japanese%20electronic%20components%20manufacturer%20Ibiden%E2%80%99s%20estimated%2070%E2%80%9380%25%20share%20of%20the%20high-end%20AI%20server%20substrate%20market%20will%20fall%20below%2070%25%20by%20early%202028.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20Japanese%20electronic%20components%20manufacturer%20Ibiden%E2%80%99s%20estimated%2070%E2%80%9380%25%20share%20of%20the%20high-end%20AI%20server%20substrate%20market%20will%20fall%20below%2070%25%20by%20early%202028.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20Japanese%20electronic%20components%20manufacturer%20Ibiden%E2%80%99s%20estimated%2070%E2%80%9380%25%20share%20of%20the%20high-end%20AI%20server%20substrate%20market%20will%20fall%20below%2070%25%20by%20early%202028.) ## More from Japan 36 predictions on Japan so far, newest first. - 10 Nov 2026 · [NVIDIA will win AI GPU orders for SoftBank’s Sarawak campus worth US$500 million.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/212/nvidia-will-win-ai-gpu-orders-for-softbank-s-sarawak-campus-worth-us-500-million) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [Japan’s government preferential debt for local banks will greatly aid its data centre boom.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/190/japan-s-government-preferential-debt-for-local-banks-will-greatly-aid-its-data-c) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [China’s government signals a coal buying push — Australian coal is a winner, while Japanese and South Korean power utilities are the likely losers.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/189/china-s-government-signals-a-coal-buying-push-australian-coal-is-a-winner-while-) · Unresolved [All 36 from Japan](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=japan) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)