--- title: "Sinopec is set to lose US$150–300 million in fuel revenue by the end of 2026." description: "On October 27 the National Development and Reform Commission capped gasoline and diesel price increases at RMB345 and RMB335 per tonne, below the RMB440 and RMB420 allowed under its normal pricing for" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/197/sinopec-is-set-to-lose-us-150-300-million-in-fuel-revenue-by-the-end-of-2026" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/197/sinopec-is-set-to-lose-us-150-300-million-in-fuel-revenue-by-the-end-of-2026.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Sinopec is set to lose US$150–300 million in fuel revenue by the end of 2026. - **Made:** 30 Oct 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** China - **Outcome:** Unresolved On October 27 the National Development and Reform Commission capped gasoline and diesel price increases at RMB345 and RMB335 per tonne, below the RMB440 and RMB420 allowed under its normal pricing formula. Previously, the formula passed rising crude costs on to consumers every ten working days. With Brent crude trading near US$115 a barrel, each cap now leaves refiners absorbing an extra RMB85–95 per tonne. Sinopec sold 118.9 million tonnes of fuel domestically in the first nine months of 2026, putting its estimated lost revenue at US$60–85 million per pricing round. With Brent crude trading near US$115 a barrel, the losses could equal 7–15% of Sinopec’s US$2.01 billion third-quarter net profit, slowing its refining profit growth in the fourth quarter.Sinopec is particularly exposed because it buys roughly 80% of its crude oil at market prices but sells refined fuel at government-controlled prices. ![Actors and decision makers behind China’s fuel price caps and Sinopec’s revenue loss](https://cms.bilby.ai/api/media/file/adt-2026-10-30-prediction-197.png?prefix=cms-media) [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Sinopec%20is%20set%20to%20lose%20US%24150%E2%80%93300%20million%20in%20fuel%20revenue%20by%20the%20end%20of%202026.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20Sinopec%20is%20set%20to%20lose%20US%24150%E2%80%93300%20million%20in%20fuel%20revenue%20by%20the%20end%20of%202026.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20Sinopec%20is%20set%20to%20lose%20US%24150%E2%80%93300%20million%20in%20fuel%20revenue%20by%20the%20end%20of%202026.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20Sinopec%20is%20set%20to%20lose%20US%24150%E2%80%93300%20million%20in%20fuel%20revenue%20by%20the%20end%20of%202026.) ## More from China 37 predictions on China so far, newest first. - 9 Nov 2026 · [Costly winter gas purchases will push CPC’s accumulated losses to about NT$127.6 billion by the end of 2026](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/209/costly-winter-gas-purchases-will-push-cpc-s-accumulated-losses-to-about-nt-127-6) · Unresolved - 6 Nov 2026 · [Nvidia is likely to win additional computing orders by the end of 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/208/nvidia-is-likely-to-win-additional-computing-orders-by-the-end-of-2027) · Unresolved - 5 Nov 2026 · [China’s IPO restrictions will redirect billions of yuan towards private financing.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/205/china-s-ipo-restrictions-will-redirect-billions-of-yuan-towards-private-financin) · Unresolved [All 37 from China](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=china) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)