--- title: "Xiaomi will forgo about US$550 million in Q1 2027 smartphone revenue as its global shipment share drops from 12.1% in Q3 2026 to below 11%." description: "Taiwan’s manufacturing report on 2 November found that memory shortages were delaying AI deliveries. Memory makers are prioritising higher-paying AI and server customers, keeping prices high for phone" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/201/xiaomi-will-forgo-about-us-550-million-in-q1-2027-smartphone-revenue-as-its-glob" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/201/xiaomi-will-forgo-about-us-550-million-in-q1-2027-smartphone-revenue-as-its-glob.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Xiaomi will forgo about US$550 million in Q1 2027 smartphone revenue as its global shipment share drops from 12.1% in Q3 2026 to below 11%. - **Made:** 3 Nov 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** Taiwan - **First reported by:** Focus Taiwan - **Outcome:** Unresolved Taiwan’s manufacturing report on 2 November found that memory shortages were delaying AI deliveries. Memory makers are prioritising higher-paying AI and server customers, keeping prices high for phone manufacturers. Xiaomi has little room to absorb those costs. Its smartphone gross margin was just 8.5% in Q2, even after average selling prices rose 25.9%. Protecting margins therefore means raising prices and risking fewer sales. That trade-off is already visible. Omdia reported that Xiaomi’s Q3 shipments fell 29% from a year earlier, compared with Samsung’s 5% decline. Phones generated 38.7% of Xiaomi’s group revenue, so lost sales carry considerable weight. Slower memory-price increases and premium launches could ease the pressure, but offer little immediate relief for cheaper models. First reported by [Focus Taiwan](https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202611020023) ![Causal pathway from memory shortages to Xiaomi’s smartphone revenue and market share](https://cms.bilby.ai/api/media/file/adt-2026-11-03-prediction-201.png?prefix=cms-media) [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Xiaomi%20will%20forgo%20about%20US%24550%20million%20in%20Q1%202027%20smartphone%20revenue%20as%20its%20global%20shipment%20share%20drops%20from%2012.1%25%20in%20Q3%202026%20to%20below%2011%25.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20Xiaomi%20will%20forgo%20about%20US%24550%20million%20in%20Q1%202027%20smartphone%20revenue%20as%20its%20global%20shipment%20share%20drops%20from%2012.1%25%20in%20Q3%202026%20to%20below%2011%25.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20Xiaomi%20will%20forgo%20about%20US%24550%20million%20in%20Q1%202027%20smartphone%20revenue%20as%20its%20global%20shipment%20share%20drops%20from%2012.1%25%20in%20Q3%202026%20to%20below%2011%25.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20Xiaomi%20will%20forgo%20about%20US%24550%20million%20in%20Q1%202027%20smartphone%20revenue%20as%20its%20global%20shipment%20share%20drops%20from%2012.1%25%20in%20Q3%202026%20to%20below%2011%25.) ## More from Taiwan 14 predictions on Taiwan so far, newest first. - 12 Nov 2026 · [Samsung Electro-Mechanics would capture a larger share of US AI-chip substrate orders in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/213/samsung-electro-mechanics-would-capture-a-larger-share-of-us-ai-chip-substrate-o) · Unresolved - 10 Nov 2026 · [Taiwanese tungsten exporters will face squeezed margins in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/211/taiwanese-tungsten-exporters-will-face-squeezed-margins-in-2027) · Unresolved - 9 Nov 2026 · [Nvidia will place additional AI memory orders with SK hynix or Samsung by the end of 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/210/nvidia-will-place-additional-ai-memory-orders-with-sk-hynix-or-samsung-by-the-en) · Unresolved [All 14 from Taiwan](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=taiwan) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)