--- title: "MG is likely to capture at least 18% of Thailand’s EV market in the first nine months of 2027, up from 14.2% a year earlier." description: "On 3 November Thailand’s Cabinet approved raising the standard excise tax on imported electric cars from 10% to 35% from 1 January 2027. Importers without tax relief will have to raise prices or accep" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/204/mg-is-likely-to-capture-at-least-18-of-thailand-s-ev-market-in-the-first-nine-mo" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/204/mg-is-likely-to-capture-at-least-18-of-thailand-s-ev-market-in-the-first-nine-mo.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # MG is likely to capture at least 18% of Thailand’s EV market in the first nine months of 2027, up from 14.2% a year earlier. - **Made:** 4 Nov 2026 - **By:** Owen Bae - **Market:** Thailand - **First reported by:** Thai PBS - **Outcome:** Unresolved On 3 November Thailand’s Cabinet approved raising the standard excise tax on imported electric cars from 10% to 35% from 1 January 2027. Importers without tax relief will have to raise prices or accept lower margins, giving qualifying locally built cars a stronger price advantage. MG already produces electric models at its Chonburi factory and assembles battery packs locally, putting it in a stronger position to qualify for preferential treatment. Its registration share had already reached 16% in September. An October promotion priced its Urban hatchback from 549,900 baht, showing its ability to compete for buyers seeking affordable electric cars. Import-dependent rivals such as Geely distributor Thonburi Neustern will have less room to match those prices unless investment-linked exemptions protect their imports or they begin producing locally – though meaningful local production will take years to establish. First reported by [Thai PBS](https://www.thaipbs.or.th/news/content/572100) ![Actors and decision makers affecting MG’s share of Thailand’s electric vehicle market](https://cms.bilby.ai/api/media/file/adt-2026-11-04-prediction-204.png?prefix=cms-media) [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=MG%20is%20likely%20to%20capture%20at%20least%2018%25%20of%20Thailand%E2%80%99s%20EV%20market%20in%20the%20first%20nine%20months%20of%202027%2C%20up%20from%2014.2%25%20a%20year%20earlier.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20MG%20is%20likely%20to%20capture%20at%20least%2018%25%20of%20Thailand%E2%80%99s%20EV%20market%20in%20the%20first%20nine%20months%20of%202027%2C%20up%20from%2014.2%25%20a%20year%20earlier.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20MG%20is%20likely%20to%20capture%20at%20least%2018%25%20of%20Thailand%E2%80%99s%20EV%20market%20in%20the%20first%20nine%20months%20of%202027%2C%20up%20from%2014.2%25%20a%20year%20earlier.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20MG%20is%20likely%20to%20capture%20at%20least%2018%25%20of%20Thailand%E2%80%99s%20EV%20market%20in%20the%20first%20nine%20months%20of%202027%2C%20up%20from%2014.2%25%20a%20year%20earlier.) ## More from Thailand 12 predictions on Thailand so far, newest first. - 5 Nov 2026 · [Amazon Web Services is likely to make less profit on its fixed-price Thai cloud services in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/206/amazon-web-services-is-likely-to-make-less-profit-on-its-fixed-price-thai-cloud-) · Unresolved - 30 Oct 2026 · [Thailand’s data-centre expansion will favour established operator True IDC over newcomer DAMAC.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/199/thailand-s-data-centre-expansion-will-favour-established-operator-true-idc-over-) · Unresolved - 26 Oct 2026 · [Thailand’s online advertisers are going away from TikTok to Meta.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/186/thailand-s-online-advertisers-are-going-away-from-tiktok-to-meta) · Unresolved [All 12 from Thailand](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=thailand) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)