---
title: "South Korea's rare-earth dependence on China will still sit above 70% in every category through 2028, despite the new SEED stockpiling and recycling push."
description: "Seoul has diversified gallium and germanium sourcing within 18 months by tapping refining capacity in Germany, the US and Canada, but its dependence on China for raw rare-earth elements (79.8%) and pr"
url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/35/south-korea-s-rare-earth-dependence-on-china-will-still-sit-above-70-in-every-ca"
markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/35/south-korea-s-rare-earth-dependence-on-china-will-still-sit-above-70-in-every-ca.md"
index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt"
---

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# South Korea's rare-earth dependence on China will still sit above 70% in every category through 2028, despite the new SEED stockpiling and recycling push.

- **Made:** 13 Aug 2026
- **By:** David Lee
- **Outcome:** Unresolved

Seoul has diversified gallium and germanium sourcing within 18 months by tapping refining capacity in Germany, the US and Canada, but its dependence on China for raw rare-earth elements (79.8%) and processed compounds and magnets (85-92%) will prove far harder to cut since no non-Chinese separation or magnet capacity exists at scale, meaning reliance will stay worse than officials admit.

[Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=South%20Korea's%20rare-earth%20dependence%20on%20China%20will%20still%20sit%20above%2070%25%20in%20every%20category%20through%202028%2C%20despite%20the%20new%20SEED%20stockpiling%20and%20recycling%20push.)

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- [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20South%20Korea's%20rare-earth%20dependence%20on%20China%20will%20still%20sit%20above%2070%25%20in%20every%20category%20through%202028%2C%20despite%20the%20new%20SEED%20stockpiling%20and%20recycling%20push.)
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