--- title: "At least one major offshore wind developer will withdraw from or downsize a Japanese project within six months, despite Tokyo's subsidy hike to ¥700,000/kW." description: "Mitsubishi and other developers already returned allocations in 2024 over cost blowouts from steel prices, currency swings and turbine supply, so a 3.5-times subsidy rise narrows but does not eliminat" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/39/at-least-one-major-offshore-wind-developer-will-withdraw-from-or-downsize-a-japa" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/39/at-least-one-major-offshore-wind-developer-will-withdraw-from-or-downsize-a-japa.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # At least one major offshore wind developer will withdraw from or downsize a Japanese project within six months, despite Tokyo's subsidy hike to ¥700,000/kW. - **Made:** 14 Aug 2026 - **By:** David Lee - **Market:** Japan - **Outcome:** True **True** · Judged 13 November 2026 Reuters reported on 5 November that Tokyo Gas, Japan's biggest city gas supplier, has withdrawn from an offshore wind project at Kashima Bay in Ibaraki prefecture because of rising costs. President Shinichi Sasayama gave the news at a press conference and declined to say more. He said the company will keep pursuing other projects, including floating offshore wind. Mitsubishi and other developers already returned allocations in 2024 over cost blowouts from steel prices, currency swings and turbine supply, so a 3.5-times subsidy rise narrows but does not eliminate the financing gap driving exits. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=At%20least%20one%20major%20offshore%20wind%20developer%20will%20withdraw%20from%20or%20downsize%20a%20Japanese%20project%20within%20six%20months%2C%20despite%20Tokyo's%20subsidy%20hike%20to%20%C2%A5700%2C000%2FkW.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20At%20least%20one%20major%20offshore%20wind%20developer%20will%20withdraw%20from%20or%20downsize%20a%20Japanese%20project%20within%20six%20months%2C%20despite%20Tokyo's%20subsidy%20hike%20to%20%C2%A5700%2C000%2FkW.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20At%20least%20one%20major%20offshore%20wind%20developer%20will%20withdraw%20from%20or%20downsize%20a%20Japanese%20project%20within%20six%20months%2C%20despite%20Tokyo's%20subsidy%20hike%20to%20%C2%A5700%2C000%2FkW.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20At%20least%20one%20major%20offshore%20wind%20developer%20will%20withdraw%20from%20or%20downsize%20a%20Japanese%20project%20within%20six%20months%2C%20despite%20Tokyo's%20subsidy%20hike%20to%20%C2%A5700%2C000%2FkW.) ## More from Japan 36 predictions on Japan so far, newest first. - 10 Nov 2026 · [NVIDIA will win AI GPU orders for SoftBank’s Sarawak campus worth US$500 million.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/212/nvidia-will-win-ai-gpu-orders-for-softbank-s-sarawak-campus-worth-us-500-million) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [Japan’s government preferential debt for local banks will greatly aid its data centre boom.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/190/japan-s-government-preferential-debt-for-local-banks-will-greatly-aid-its-data-c) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [China’s government signals a coal buying push — Australian coal is a winner, while Japanese and South Korean power utilities are the likely losers.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/189/china-s-government-signals-a-coal-buying-push-australian-coal-is-a-winner-while-) · Unresolved [All 36 from Japan](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=japan) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)