--- title: "China's PBOC will cut a key policy rate by 10 basis points before the end of September 2026." description: "Q2 growth of 4.3% missed Beijing's 4.5-5% target, and the Politburo's latest \"moderately loose monetary policy\" language, though light on explicit easing now, sets up an autumn cut once weak Q3 data c" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/4/china-s-pboc-will-cut-a-key-policy-rate-by-10-basis-points-before-the-end-of-sep" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/4/china-s-pboc-will-cut-a-key-policy-rate-by-10-basis-points-before-the-end-of-sep.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # China's PBOC will cut a key policy rate by 10 basis points before the end of September 2026. - **Made:** 31 Jul 2026 - **By:** Marco Law - **Market:** China - **Outcome:** False **False** · Judged 13 November 2026 The PBOC did not cut its main policy rate before the end of September. The 7-day reverse repo rate stayed at 1.40%, unchanged since May 2025, and the loan prime rates stayed at 3.0% and 3.5% at the August and September fixings. The only rate cut that month was 25 basis points to the one-year PSL relending rate, from 1.75% to 1.5%, announced on 29 September. That is a different tool and a different size from the 10 basis point cut predicted. Q2 growth of 4.3% missed Beijing's 4.5-5% target, and the Politburo's latest "moderately loose monetary policy" language, though light on explicit easing now, sets up an autumn cut once weak Q3 data confirms the need for support ahead of October's Central Committee Fifth Plenum. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=China's%20PBOC%20will%20cut%20a%20key%20policy%20rate%20by%2010%20basis%20points%20before%20the%20end%20of%20September%202026.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20China's%20PBOC%20will%20cut%20a%20key%20policy%20rate%20by%2010%20basis%20points%20before%20the%20end%20of%20September%202026.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20China's%20PBOC%20will%20cut%20a%20key%20policy%20rate%20by%2010%20basis%20points%20before%20the%20end%20of%20September%202026.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20China's%20PBOC%20will%20cut%20a%20key%20policy%20rate%20by%2010%20basis%20points%20before%20the%20end%20of%20September%202026.) ## More from China 37 predictions on China so far, newest first. - 9 Nov 2026 · [Costly winter gas purchases will push CPC’s accumulated losses to about NT$127.6 billion by the end of 2026](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/209/costly-winter-gas-purchases-will-push-cpc-s-accumulated-losses-to-about-nt-127-6) · Unresolved - 6 Nov 2026 · [Nvidia is likely to win additional computing orders by the end of 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/208/nvidia-is-likely-to-win-additional-computing-orders-by-the-end-of-2027) · Unresolved - 5 Nov 2026 · [China’s IPO restrictions will redirect billions of yuan towards private financing.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/205/china-s-ipo-restrictions-will-redirect-billions-of-yuan-towards-private-financin) · Unresolved [All 37 from China](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=china) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)