---
title: "China's crude oil imports will keep climbing toward roughly 570-580 million tonnes in 2026, extending 2025's rebound."
description: "Beijing's new five-year plan for crude oil and natural gas touts \"enhanced self-sufficiency\" alongside a 440-million-tonne domestic output target, feeding a narrative of import substitution. Yet the s"
url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/46/china-s-crude-oil-imports-will-keep-climbing-toward-roughly-570-580-million-tonn"
markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/46/china-s-crude-oil-imports-will-keep-climbing-toward-roughly-570-580-million-tonn.md"
index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt"
---

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# China's crude oil imports will keep climbing toward roughly 570-580 million tonnes in 2026, extending 2025's rebound.

- **Made:** 18 Aug 2026
- **By:** David Lee
- **Outcome:** Unresolved

Beijing's new five-year plan for crude oil and natural gas touts "enhanced self-sufficiency" alongside a 440-million-tonne domestic output target, feeding a narrative of import substitution. Yet the same plan expands LNG and pipeline import capacity with no dependency-ratio cap, matching the trend of imports rising from 553 million tonnes in 2024 to 558 million tonnes in 2025.

[Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=China's%20crude%20oil%20imports%20will%20keep%20climbing%20toward%20roughly%20570-580%20million%20tonnes%20in%202026%2C%20extending%202025's%20rebound.)

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- [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20China's%20crude%20oil%20imports%20will%20keep%20climbing%20toward%20roughly%20570-580%20million%20tonnes%20in%202026%2C%20extending%202025's%20rebound.)
- [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20China's%20crude%20oil%20imports%20will%20keep%20climbing%20toward%20roughly%20570-580%20million%20tonnes%20in%202026%2C%20extending%202025's%20rebound.)
- [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20China's%20crude%20oil%20imports%20will%20keep%20climbing%20toward%20roughly%20570-580%20million%20tonnes%20in%202026%2C%20extending%202025's%20rebound.)

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