--- title: "Toyota, Honda and Nissan will avoid any EV assembly-line halt through year-end despite Japan's rare earth crunch." description: "All three have spent nearly a decade developing motor designs that reduce or eliminate heavy rare earth content, giving them a partial buffer against a shortage that saw Japan's dysprosium imports col" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/54/toyota-honda-and-nissan-will-avoid-any-ev-assembly-line-halt-through-year-end-de" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/54/toyota-honda-and-nissan-will-avoid-any-ev-assembly-line-halt-through-year-end-de.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Toyota, Honda and Nissan will avoid any EV assembly-line halt through year-end despite Japan's rare earth crunch. - **Made:** 21 Aug 2026 - **By:** David Lee - **Market:** Japan - **Outcome:** Unresolved All three have spent nearly a decade developing motor designs that reduce or eliminate heavy rare earth content, giving them a partial buffer against a shortage that saw Japan's dysprosium imports collapse 82% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, hitting zero in four separate months. That head start, not the severity of the shortage itself, is what keeps assembly lines running even as Tokyo's diplomatic standoff with Beijing over Taiwan shows no sign of easing. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Toyota%2C%20Honda%20and%20Nissan%20will%20avoid%20any%20EV%20assembly-line%20halt%20through%20year-end%20despite%20Japan's%20rare%20earth%20crunch.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20Toyota%2C%20Honda%20and%20Nissan%20will%20avoid%20any%20EV%20assembly-line%20halt%20through%20year-end%20despite%20Japan's%20rare%20earth%20crunch.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20Toyota%2C%20Honda%20and%20Nissan%20will%20avoid%20any%20EV%20assembly-line%20halt%20through%20year-end%20despite%20Japan's%20rare%20earth%20crunch.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20Toyota%2C%20Honda%20and%20Nissan%20will%20avoid%20any%20EV%20assembly-line%20halt%20through%20year-end%20despite%20Japan's%20rare%20earth%20crunch.) ## More from Japan 36 predictions on Japan so far, newest first. - 10 Nov 2026 · [NVIDIA will win AI GPU orders for SoftBank’s Sarawak campus worth US$500 million.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/212/nvidia-will-win-ai-gpu-orders-for-softbank-s-sarawak-campus-worth-us-500-million) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [Japan’s government preferential debt for local banks will greatly aid its data centre boom.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/190/japan-s-government-preferential-debt-for-local-banks-will-greatly-aid-its-data-c) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [China’s government signals a coal buying push — Australian coal is a winner, while Japanese and South Korean power utilities are the likely losers.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/189/china-s-government-signals-a-coal-buying-push-australian-coal-is-a-winner-while-) · Unresolved [All 36 from Japan](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=japan) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)