--- title: "Within a year of a new tax deferral scheme taking effect, at least three of Japan's largest conglomerates will announce non-core carve outs worth over $1 billion each." description: "METI's plan to defer capital gains tax on reinvested business sale proceeds removes the main disincentive that has kept firms hoarding underperforming units for decades. Expect foreign private equity " url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/61/within-a-year-of-a-new-tax-deferral-scheme-taking-effect-at-least-three-of-japan" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/61/within-a-year-of-a-new-tax-deferral-scheme-taking-effect-at-least-three-of-japan.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Within a year of a new tax deferral scheme taking effect, at least three of Japan's largest conglomerates will announce non-core carve outs worth over $1 billion each. - **Made:** 25 Aug 2026 - **By:** David Lee - **Market:** Japan - **Outcome:** Unresolved METI's plan to defer capital gains tax on reinvested business sale proceeds removes the main disincentive that has kept firms hoarding underperforming units for decades. Expect foreign private equity buyers, not domestic rivals, to be the primary acquirers of these newly divested assets. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Within%20a%20year%20of%20a%20new%20tax%20deferral%20scheme%20taking%20effect%2C%20at%20least%20three%20of%20Japan's%20largest%20conglomerates%20will%20announce%20non-core%20carve%20outs%20worth%20over%20%241%20billion%20each.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20Within%20a%20year%20of%20a%20new%20tax%20deferral%20scheme%20taking%20effect%2C%20at%20least%20three%20of%20Japan's%20largest%20conglomerates%20will%20announce%20non-core%20carve%20outs%20worth%20over%20%241%20billion%20each.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20Within%20a%20year%20of%20a%20new%20tax%20deferral%20scheme%20taking%20effect%2C%20at%20least%20three%20of%20Japan's%20largest%20conglomerates%20will%20announce%20non-core%20carve%20outs%20worth%20over%20%241%20billion%20each.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20Within%20a%20year%20of%20a%20new%20tax%20deferral%20scheme%20taking%20effect%2C%20at%20least%20three%20of%20Japan's%20largest%20conglomerates%20will%20announce%20non-core%20carve%20outs%20worth%20over%20%241%20billion%20each.) ## More from Japan 36 predictions on Japan so far, newest first. - 10 Nov 2026 · [NVIDIA will win AI GPU orders for SoftBank’s Sarawak campus worth US$500 million.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/212/nvidia-will-win-ai-gpu-orders-for-softbank-s-sarawak-campus-worth-us-500-million) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [Japan’s government preferential debt for local banks will greatly aid its data centre boom.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/190/japan-s-government-preferential-debt-for-local-banks-will-greatly-aid-its-data-c) · Unresolved - 27 Oct 2026 · [China’s government signals a coal buying push — Australian coal is a winner, while Japanese and South Korean power utilities are the likely losers.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/189/china-s-government-signals-a-coal-buying-push-australian-coal-is-a-winner-while-) · Unresolved [All 36 from Japan](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=japan) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)