--- title: "Indonesia's crude oil output will finish 2026 at least 5% below its 610,000 barrels per day target." description: "July's average of 578,156 barrels per day already missed the state goal due to pipeline leaks and field decline, and no rapid fix is in sight. Expect a further rise in refined fuel imports and pressur" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/67/indonesia-s-crude-oil-output-will-finish-2026-at-least-5-below-its-610-000-barre" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/67/indonesia-s-crude-oil-output-will-finish-2026-at-least-5-below-its-610-000-barre.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Indonesia's crude oil output will finish 2026 at least 5% below its 610,000 barrels per day target. - **Made:** 27 Aug 2026 - **By:** Marco Law - **Market:** Indonesia - **Outcome:** Unresolved July's average of 578,156 barrels per day already missed the state goal due to pipeline leaks and field decline, and no rapid fix is in sight. Expect a further rise in refined fuel imports and pressure on the state energy subsidy bill rather than the self-sufficiency gains officials keep promising. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Indonesia's%20crude%20oil%20output%20will%20finish%202026%20at%20least%205%25%20below%20its%20610%2C000%20barrels%20per%20day%20target.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20Indonesia's%20crude%20oil%20output%20will%20finish%202026%20at%20least%205%25%20below%20its%20610%2C000%20barrels%20per%20day%20target.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20Indonesia's%20crude%20oil%20output%20will%20finish%202026%20at%20least%205%25%20below%20its%20610%2C000%20barrels%20per%20day%20target.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20Indonesia's%20crude%20oil%20output%20will%20finish%202026%20at%20least%205%25%20below%20its%20610%2C000%20barrels%20per%20day%20target.) ## More from Indonesia 29 predictions on Indonesia so far, newest first. - 3 Nov 2026 · [ANTAM’s nickel operating profit will reach at least Rp15 trillion (US$830 million) in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/200/antam-s-nickel-operating-profit-will-reach-at-least-rp15-trillion-us-830-million) · Unresolved - 28 Oct 2026 · [Jakarta’s reform plan is unlikely to reverse MSCI to move Indonesia to Standalone Market status by 30 June 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/191/jakarta-s-reform-plan-is-unlikely-to-reverse-msci-to-move-indonesia-to-standalon) · Unresolved - 20 Oct 2026 · [MSCI will confirm Indonesia’s downgrade from Emerging Market to Standalone Market status by 30 June 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/173/msci-will-confirm-indonesia-s-downgrade-from-emerging-market-to-standalone-marke) · Unresolved [All 29 from Indonesia](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=indonesia) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)