--- title: "China's new-home prices will keep falling on a year-on-year basis through at least the first quarter of 2027, even as sales volumes stabilise following a property financing overhaul." description: "Beijing's reform, unveiled through five trial regulations, extends mortgages to 40 years and eases developer credit, but does nothing to absorb the huge unsold and shadow inventory built up since 2021" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/73/china-s-new-home-prices-will-keep-falling-on-a-year-on-year-basis-through-at-lea" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/73/china-s-new-home-prices-will-keep-falling-on-a-year-on-year-basis-through-at-lea.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # China's new-home prices will keep falling on a year-on-year basis through at least the first quarter of 2027, even as sales volumes stabilise following a property financing overhaul. - **Made:** 31 Aug 2026 - **By:** Marco Law - **Market:** China - **Outcome:** Unresolved Beijing's reform, unveiled through five trial regulations, extends mortgages to 40 years and eases developer credit, but does nothing to absorb the huge unsold and shadow inventory built up since 2021, when roughly 90% of homes were sold before completion. Cheaper credit boosts affordability and transaction counts, not the price floor, since resale volumes have already overtaken new-home sales as buyers shun presale risk. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=China's%20new-home%20prices%20will%20keep%20falling%20on%20a%20year-on-year%20basis%20through%20at%20least%20the%20first%20quarter%20of%202027%2C%20even%20as%20sales%20volumes%20stabilise%20following%20a%20property%20financing%20overhaul.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20China's%20new-home%20prices%20will%20keep%20falling%20on%20a%20year-on-year%20basis%20through%20at%20least%20the%20first%20quarter%20of%202027%2C%20even%20as%20sales%20volumes%20stabilise%20following%20a%20property%20financing%20overhaul.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20China's%20new-home%20prices%20will%20keep%20falling%20on%20a%20year-on-year%20basis%20through%20at%20least%20the%20first%20quarter%20of%202027%2C%20even%20as%20sales%20volumes%20stabilise%20following%20a%20property%20financing%20overhaul.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20China's%20new-home%20prices%20will%20keep%20falling%20on%20a%20year-on-year%20basis%20through%20at%20least%20the%20first%20quarter%20of%202027%2C%20even%20as%20sales%20volumes%20stabilise%20following%20a%20property%20financing%20overhaul.) ## More from China 37 predictions on China so far, newest first. - 9 Nov 2026 · [Costly winter gas purchases will push CPC’s accumulated losses to about NT$127.6 billion by the end of 2026](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/209/costly-winter-gas-purchases-will-push-cpc-s-accumulated-losses-to-about-nt-127-6) · Unresolved - 6 Nov 2026 · [Nvidia is likely to win additional computing orders by the end of 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/208/nvidia-is-likely-to-win-additional-computing-orders-by-the-end-of-2027) · Unresolved - 5 Nov 2026 · [China’s IPO restrictions will redirect billions of yuan towards private financing.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/205/china-s-ipo-restrictions-will-redirect-billions-of-yuan-towards-private-financin) · Unresolved [All 37 from China](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=china) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)