--- title: "India's semiconductor trade deficit will widen in absolute dollar terms through 2028, even as officials tout falling import dependence." description: "The domestic market is set to grow from roughly $50-62 billion now to $103-155 billion by 2030 to 2031, while over 90 percent of chips are still imported today. Even if the new Semicon 2.0 government " url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/78/india-s-semiconductor-trade-deficit-will-widen-in-absolute-dollar-terms-through-" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/78/india-s-semiconductor-trade-deficit-will-widen-in-absolute-dollar-terms-through-.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # India's semiconductor trade deficit will widen in absolute dollar terms through 2028, even as officials tout falling import dependence. - **Made:** 2 Sep 2026 - **By:** Marco Law - **Market:** India - **Outcome:** Unresolved The domestic market is set to grow from roughly $50-62 billion now to $103-155 billion by 2030 to 2031, while over 90 percent of chips are still imported today. Even if the new Semicon 2.0 government subsidies push the import share down to 70 to 75 percent by 2028, a more optimistic pace than any prior industrial policy has managed, the absolute import bill would still grow, because market expansion is outrunning capacity addition faster than substitution can catch up. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=India's%20semiconductor%20trade%20deficit%20will%20widen%20in%20absolute%20dollar%20terms%20through%202028%2C%20even%20as%20officials%20tout%20falling%20import%20dependence.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20India's%20semiconductor%20trade%20deficit%20will%20widen%20in%20absolute%20dollar%20terms%20through%202028%2C%20even%20as%20officials%20tout%20falling%20import%20dependence.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20India's%20semiconductor%20trade%20deficit%20will%20widen%20in%20absolute%20dollar%20terms%20through%202028%2C%20even%20as%20officials%20tout%20falling%20import%20dependence.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20India's%20semiconductor%20trade%20deficit%20will%20widen%20in%20absolute%20dollar%20terms%20through%202028%2C%20even%20as%20officials%20tout%20falling%20import%20dependence.) ## More from India 18 predictions on India so far, newest first. - 29 Oct 2026 · [Reliance Industries’ diesel export margins will come under pressure in 2027, putting roughly US$6 billion in annual gross profit at risk.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/195/reliance-industries-diesel-export-margins-will-come-under-pressure-in-2027-putti) · Unresolved - 15 Oct 2026 · [India will avoid new US tariffs under the Graham Act when President Trump makes his decision on 18 October.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/167/india-will-avoid-new-us-tariffs-under-the-graham-act-when-president-trump-makes-) · True - 14 Oct 2026 · [India’s state-owned power producer NTPC will fail to secure binding green ammonia or methanol export contracts by the end of 2027, forgoing US$120 million a year in export premiums.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/163/india-s-state-owned-power-producer-ntpc-will-fail-to-secure-binding-green-ammoni) · Unresolved [All 18 from India](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=india) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)