--- title: "Chinese automakers, not Japanese incumbents, will keep gaining Thai EV market share even after Bangkok's new tiered excise tax rewards local component sourcing." description: "The overhaul is framed as protecting Japanese and Thai suppliers from Chinese import dumping, but BYD, Great Wall and MG already run Thai assembly plants and battery localisation lines faster than Toy" url: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/99/chinese-automakers-not-japanese-incumbents-will-keep-gaining-thai-ev-market-shar" markdown: "https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/99/chinese-automakers-not-japanese-incumbents-will-keep-gaining-thai-ev-market-shar.md" index: "https://bilby.ai/llms.txt" --- > For agents: Bilby answers questions about what governments do, from documents collected at source and checked by research analysts. To ask Bilby yourself, connect to its MCP server at https://pulse.bilby.ai/mcp (setup: https://docs.bilby.ai/developers/mcp-server). Every page on this site is also markdown: add .md to its address, or send Accept: text/markdown. https://bilby.ai/llms.txt lists them all. # Chinese automakers, not Japanese incumbents, will keep gaining Thai EV market share even after Bangkok's new tiered excise tax rewards local component sourcing. - **Made:** 11 Sep 2026 - **By:** Marco Law - **Market:** Thailand, Japan - **Outcome:** Unresolved The overhaul is framed as protecting Japanese and Thai suppliers from Chinese import dumping, but BYD, Great Wall and MG already run Thai assembly plants and battery localisation lines faster than Toyota, Honda or Mazda, whose EV lineups still lean on imported completed vehicles. Expect combined Chinese brand share of Thai battery-electric registrations to stay above 60% through 2027. [Ask Bilby about this prediction](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Chinese%20automakers%2C%20not%20Japanese%20incumbents%2C%20will%20keep%20gaining%20Thai%20EV%20market%20share%20even%20after%20Bangkok's%20new%20tiered%20excise%20tax%20rewards%20local%20component%20sourcing.) ## Ask Bilby about it Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed. - [What has changed since it was made?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=What%20has%20changed%20since%20Bilby%20predicted%20this%3F%20Chinese%20automakers%2C%20not%20Japanese%20incumbents%2C%20will%20keep%20gaining%20Thai%20EV%20market%20share%20even%20after%20Bangkok's%20new%20tiered%20excise%20tax%20rewards%20local%20component%20sourcing.) - [Who decides whether it happens?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20decides%20whether%20this%20happens%3F%20Chinese%20automakers%2C%20not%20Japanese%20incumbents%2C%20will%20keep%20gaining%20Thai%20EV%20market%20share%20even%20after%20Bangkok's%20new%20tiered%20excise%20tax%20rewards%20local%20component%20sourcing.) - [Who gains and who loses if it does?](https://pulse.bilby.ai/?prompt=Who%20gains%20and%20who%20loses%20if%20this%20happens%3F%20Chinese%20automakers%2C%20not%20Japanese%20incumbents%2C%20will%20keep%20gaining%20Thai%20EV%20market%20share%20even%20after%20Bangkok's%20new%20tiered%20excise%20tax%20rewards%20local%20component%20sourcing.) ## More from Thailand 12 predictions on Thailand so far, newest first. - 5 Nov 2026 · [Amazon Web Services is likely to make less profit on its fixed-price Thai cloud services in 2027.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/206/amazon-web-services-is-likely-to-make-less-profit-on-its-fixed-price-thai-cloud-) · Unresolved - 4 Nov 2026 · [MG is likely to capture at least 18% of Thailand’s EV market in the first nine months of 2027, up from 14.2% a year earlier.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/204/mg-is-likely-to-capture-at-least-18-of-thailand-s-ev-market-in-the-first-nine-mo) · Unresolved - 30 Oct 2026 · [Thailand’s data-centre expansion will favour established operator True IDC over newcomer DAMAC.](https://bilby.ai/predictions/p/199/thailand-s-data-centre-expansion-will-favour-established-operator-true-idc-over-) · Unresolved [All 12 from Thailand](https://bilby.ai/predictions/log?tag=thailand) · Marked true or false when each resolves ## See what we’re seeing next. New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question. [Get the Asia Daily Take](https://bilby.ai/asia#asia-daily-take) · [Try Bilby](https://pulse.bilby.ai/sign-up)