How we resolve
A prediction lives in public from the day it is made to the day it is judged.
Built on sources
Each prediction starts from what Bilby reads at source, from ministries, regulators and the press, and cites the documents it rests on.
Made in public
It is published the day it is made, with the reasoning behind it, and it keeps that date.
Judged on its claim
When its date comes, an analyst checks the central claim against what happened and marks it true or false, with the evidence and the date it was judged.
Only the central claim
An outcome judges the claim itself. Where the result is partial or mixed, the note beside the outcome says how.
With its evidence and its date
Every outcome carries the analyst’s explanation and the day it was judged, and stays on the record beside the prediction.
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