Predictions,on the record.
What Bilby expects to happen next, and by when. Each prediction is published the day it is made, with the reasoning and sources behind it, and keeps that date until it is judged.
- Judged 7
- Oct–Dec 2026
- Jan–Mar 2027
- Apr–Jun 2027
- Jul–Sep 2027
- Oct–Dec 2027
- Jan–Mar 2028
- Apr–Jun 2028
- Jul–Sep 2028
- Oct–Dec 2028
- Later 2
- No date 39
- Came true
- Did not
- Past its date, not judged yet
- Next to be judged
- Open
- No date in the claim
29 fall due by 31 December. Next, on 19 November: US Customs will subject at least one more Vietnamese export sector, likely solar cells, steel or furniture, for enhanced transshipment enforcement within 90 days, despite Hanoi's new crackdown pledges.
200 open · 161 with a deadline · 39 without
Deadlines are read from each claim’s own words.
Judged so far
7 predictions have been judged: 6 came true, 1 did not. Each outcome carries the evidence and the day it was judged.
The latest predictions
New ones most weekdays, each with the analysis and the sources behind it.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics would capture a larger share of US AI-chip substrate orders in 2027.
On 11 November, Taiwan proposed adding advanced AI-chip substrate technology to its list of national core technologies, bringing the associated trade secrets under its National Security Act. Tougher penalties for unauthorised use overseas will make US chip designers think twice about qualifying a backup factory if its right to use Taiwanese manufacturing know-how could be challenged. Samsung can offer a separate source from its existing South Korean lines, which NVIDIA had already contracted to use in October. Ibiden’s Ono expansion starts ramping up in early 2028, giving Samsung a chance in 2027 to win new orders that might otherwise go to Taiwan’s Unimicron.
Additional source: National Science and Technology Council
First reported byCentral News Agency
NVIDIA will win AI GPU orders for SoftBank’s Sarawak campus worth US$500 million.
On 9 November, SoftBank Group, Grab and PETROS signed a joint development agreement for the Sarawak venture, with US$1 billion in proposed funding tied to development and customer milestones. The money is paid out in stages as customers sign, so the partners need chips that tenants already trust.
Read the analysisTaiwanese tungsten exporters will face squeezed margins in 2027.
On 9 November Vietnam's Masan High-Tech Materials signed a non-binding MOU for Japan's Sojitz to buy 5% of the company and distribute its tungsten in Japan, with definitive deals due by end-2026. The announcement came as Japan and Vietnam agreed to deepen cooperation on critical minerals.
Read the analysis207
predictions on the record
31 Jul 2026 to 12 Nov 2026
All predictions
Every prediction, with the date it was made and its outcome so far.
How we resolve
A prediction lives in public from the day it is made to the day it is judged.
How outcomes are judgedBuilt on sources
Each prediction starts from what Bilby reads at source, from ministries, regulators and the press, and cites the documents it rests on.
Made in public
It is published the day it is made, with the reasoning behind it, and it keeps that date.
Judged on its claim
When its date comes, an analyst checks the central claim against what happened and marks it true or false, with the evidence and the date it was judged.
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