All predictions
India will introduce a roughly 0.25-0.3% UPI merchant fee on payments above ₹2,000 within the next 12 months, while keeping person-to-person transfers and small purchases free.
Made
7 Aug 2026
By
David Lee
Market
India
Outcome
Unresolved
Parliament has authorised UPI charges for the first time since 2016, making a targeted levy on higher-value retail payments the likeliest way to monetise the network without provoking backlash from small merchants and consumers.
Ask Bilbyabout it
Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed.
More from India
18 predictions on India so far, newest first.
29 Oct 2026Reliance Industries’ diesel export margins will come under pressure in 2027, putting roughly US$6 billion in annual gross profit at risk.Unresolved15 Oct 2026India will avoid new US tariffs under the Graham Act when President Trump makes his decision on 18 October.True14 Oct 2026India’s state-owned power producer NTPC will fail to secure binding green ammonia or methanol export contracts by the end of 2027, forgoing US$120 million a year in export premiums.Unresolved
All 18 from IndiaMarked true or false when each resolves
See what we’reseeing next.
New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question.
Get the Asia Daily TakeTry Bilby