Reliance Industries’ diesel export margins will come under pressure in 2027, putting roughly US$6 billion in annual gross profit at risk.

On 27 October 2026, India's Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas said amidst growing international capacity declines state refiners will add at least 15 million tonnes a year of diesel from 2027, led by Indian Oil and Hindustan Petroleum. Domestic demand grows about 5% a year, so roughly 200,000 of the 300,000 new barrels a day can be exported — those cargoes will shrink the premium that Europe and Africa pay. Reliance is the most exposed because its export-only Jamnagar refinery shipped 489,000 barrels a day of diesel in September and escaped the roughly $37 a barrel export levy that state refiners pay. Reliance will likely surrender a share of India's fuel exports, from over 70% to about 60%, to Indian Oil and Hindustan Petroleum, because the Jamnagar refinery’s 700,000 barrels a day capacity is already maxed out.