India’s state-owned power producer NTPC will fail to secure binding green ammonia or methanol export contracts by the end of 2027, forgoing US$120 million a year in export premiums.

On 13 October, NTPC’s chairman confirmed talks with buyers in Japan, South Korea and Germany, but its only export agreement remains a non-binding memorandum with Japan’s ENEOS from October 2025. Premium export prices depend on limited government subsidies, which competitors are securing first. In June, Japan backed IHI and ACME’s Odisha project to supply 228,000 tonnes annually. Germany followed in September, awarding AM Green a 10-year contract worth at least €585 million. Japan has funded just seven projects so far, leaving NTPC with fewer opportunities. NTPC’s only signed ammonia contract covers domestic sales. Because exporter contracts pay more than domestic sales, NTPC could forgo roughly US$57 million annually for every 100,000 tonnes sold domestically rather than abroad. With AM Green and ACME securing early export opportunities, NTPC’s US$21 billion production hub is likely to depend more heavily on lower-priced domestic sales.