All predictions
China's cumulative cross-border RMB settlement volume tied to export loans will rise by at least 15% year-on-year in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.
Made
3 Aug 2026
By
David Lee
Market
China
Outcome
Unresolved
New SAFE rules, taking effect on 1 October, introduce direct current-account crediting and remove prior administrative approval for debt-servicing currency purchases, materially cutting transaction friction for exporters. Beijing also has an incentive to showcase RMB settlement gains as evidence of "opening while controlling."
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