China's new-home prices will keep falling on a year-on-year basis through at least the first quarter of 2027, even as sales volumes stabilise following a property financing overhaul.

Beijing's reform, unveiled through five trial regulations, extends mortgages to 40 years and eases developer credit, but does nothing to absorb the huge unsold and shadow inventory built up since 2021, when roughly 90% of homes were sold before completion. Cheaper credit boosts affordability and transaction counts, not the price floor, since resale volumes have already overtaken new-home sales as buyers shun presale risk.