Chinese EV export prices in Southeast Asia will keep falling through early 2027 despite new compliance guidelines discouraging price wars by Chinese carmakers abroad.

Beijing's informal leverage against erratic carmakers, such as bank credit, SOE ties and regulator goodwill, works on flagship firms like BYD but barely reaches the smaller, financially-struggling exporters and joint-venture distributors actually setting prices in Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines. Just as in the failed "anti-involution" push in China's domestic automobile market, overcapacity in the auto industry will undermine normative pressure when guidance carries no binding penalty.