All predictions
South Korea will not submit a formal CPTPP application in 2026, and will instead unveil an expanded farmer and fisher compensation fund, likely exceeding 1 trillion won, before any Cabinet decision to apply.
Made
27 Aug 2026
By
Marco Law
Market
South Korea
Outcome
Unresolved
Fishing cooperative leaders this week cited a 2015 Korea-China FTA fund that only reached 300 billion won of its promised 1 trillion won target, fuelling demands for a credible payout before talks proceed. Deputy PM Koo Yun-cheol's pledge to "communicate sincerely" signals a prolonged consultation phase, not an imminent bid.
Ask Bilbyabout it
Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed.
More from South Korea
27 predictions on South Korea so far, newest first.
4 Nov 2026Rhythm Pharmaceuticals is likely to exceed US$750 million in rare-obesity drug sales in 2027, more than double the annual sales pace implied by its third-quarter 2026 results.Unresolved27 Oct 2026Washington’s South Korean advanced memory chipmaker anti-China restrictions will hit Samsung much harder than Beijing.Unresolved26 Oct 2026South Korea’s steel market pushes back on China yet harder.Unresolved
All 27 from South KoreaMarked true or false when each resolves
See what we’reseeing next.
New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question.
Get the Asia Daily TakeTry Bilby