All predictions
Trump will not impose the new 100% Russian oil tariff on India before mid-2027, even if the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act becomes law with India named as a top buyer.
Made
16 Sep 2026
By
Owen Bae
Market
India
Outcome
Unresolved
The bill leaves the tariff to presidential discretion, Trump has already reversed course once lifting a 25% punitive tariff on India in February 2026 as trade talks progressed. With the Bilateral Trade Agreement unsigned and Goyal still pushing for better terms, Washington will likely keep this as unexercised leverage over Delhi, not the imminent tariff many now assume.
Ask Bilbyabout it
Carry the prediction into a question: what has changed since, who decides, and who is exposed.
More from India
18 predictions on India so far, newest first.
29 Oct 2026Reliance Industries’ diesel export margins will come under pressure in 2027, putting roughly US$6 billion in annual gross profit at risk.Unresolved15 Oct 2026India will avoid new US tariffs under the Graham Act when President Trump makes his decision on 18 October.True14 Oct 2026India’s state-owned power producer NTPC will fail to secure binding green ammonia or methanol export contracts by the end of 2027, forgoing US$120 million a year in export premiums.Unresolved
All 18 from IndiaMarked true or false when each resolves
See what we’reseeing next.
New predictions in the Asia Daily Take, free every weekday, and in Bilby whenever you have a question.
Get the Asia Daily TakeTry Bilby