Indonesia's GDP growth will land between 5.2 and 5.4% in 2027, well below the 6% figure Jakarta used to build its expansive draft budget, forcing a revision of fiscal assumptions within the year.

Growth has not topped 5.6% in any quarter this year, slowing to 5.3% in the second quarter, and economists at CORE Indonesia and CSIS already call the target political ambition rather than forecast, noting growth has rarely exceeded 5.5% historically. The shortfall would push the budget deficit beyond the 2.4% of GDP ceiling Jakarta set when presenting its expansionary 2027 spending plan, testing Prabowo's fiscal credibility.