Chinese automakers, not Japanese incumbents, will keep gaining Thai EV market share even after Bangkok's new tiered excise tax rewards local component sourcing.

Made

11 Sep 2026

Marco Law

Market

Thailand, Japan

Outcome

Unresolved

The overhaul is framed as protecting Japanese and Thai suppliers from Chinese import dumping, but BYD, Great Wall and MG already run Thai assembly plants and battery localisation lines faster than Toyota, Honda or Mazda, whose EV lineups still lean on imported completed vehicles. Expect combined Chinese brand share of Thai battery-electric registrations to stay above 60% through 2027.

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