Nippon Steel flat-steel orders in Europe will rise by end-2027 as tighter origin tracing squeezes Chinese steel out of the EU market.

The Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity’s 28 members are tightening checks on where steel is produced and how it reaches importing markets, making it harder for Chinese steel producers to reroute through intermediary countries. The EU has already cut duty-free steel quotas by 47% and raised above-quota tariffs to 50%. Nippon Steel is set to capture the displaced demand through its 4.5-million-tonne Slovak mill for European manufacturers. Unlike Asian rivals that mainly export into Europe, Nippon can supply these customers from inside the EU tariff wall. Chinese mills will surrender European flat-steel business to regional producers, with Nippon well placed in Central and Eastern Europe. The lost Chinese volume is instead likely to be redirected towards less-protected Asian markets (Indonesia and Thailand).