South Korea's rare-earth dependence on China will still sit above 70% in every category through 2028, despite the new SEED stockpiling and recycling push.

Seoul has diversified gallium and germanium sourcing within 18 months by tapping refining capacity in Germany, the US and Canada, but its dependence on China for raw rare-earth elements (79.8%) and processed compounds and magnets (85-92%) will prove far harder to cut since no non-Chinese separation or magnet capacity exists at scale, meaning reliance will stay worse than officials admit.