Expect Washington to escalate Russian-oil tariff threats against India after the midterms, with Reliance Industries the likely loser.

India’s trade deal with the EU, due to be signed on 16 December, will give its pharmaceutical and technology exporters access to EU markets while keeping agriculture off the table. But, those protected sectors are precisely where US agriculture has been seeking greater access from a US–India trade deal. By giving Indian exporters another major market without agricultural concessions, the EU agreement reduces Washington’s leverage in its own trade negotiations with New Delhi. So, once the US midterms are over in November, the Trump administration is likely to turn to Russian-oil tariffs as its main pressure point. Reliance will be the likely target as India’s largest buyer of Rosneft crude — it accounts for more than 90% of India’s US-bound refined fuel exports.