China's PBOC will cut a key policy rate by 10 basis points before the end of September 2026.

Made

31 Jul 2026

Marco Law

Market

China

Outcome

False

FalseJudged 13 November 2026

The PBOC did not cut its main policy rate before the end of September. The 7-day reverse repo rate stayed at 1.40%, unchanged since May 2025, and the loan prime rates stayed at 3.0% and 3.5% at the August and September fixings. The only rate cut that month was 25 basis points to the one-year PSL relending rate, from 1.75% to 1.5%, announced on 29 September. That is a different tool and a different size from the 10 basis point cut predicted.

Q2 growth of 4.3% missed Beijing's 4.5-5% target, and the Politburo's latest "moderately loose monetary policy" language, though light on explicit easing now, sets up an autumn cut once weak Q3 data confirms the need for support ahead of October's Central Committee Fifth Plenum.

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