India's semiconductor trade deficit will widen in absolute dollar terms through 2028, even as officials tout falling import dependence.

The domestic market is set to grow from roughly $50-62 billion now to $103-155 billion by 2030 to 2031, while over 90 percent of chips are still imported today. Even if the new Semicon 2.0 government subsidies push the import share down to 70 to 75 percent by 2028, a more optimistic pace than any prior industrial policy has managed, the absolute import bill would still grow, because market expansion is outrunning capacity addition faster than substitution can catch up.